Fibonacci Betting System

 1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34. Go up one step with each loss, down 2 steps with each win. Note that every win pays for the two losses before it.

Example:

1. Bet $1 until you lose. Then bet £2.
2. If you win at £2, then return to step 1.
If you lose, then bet £3.
3. If you win at £3, then return to step 1.
If you lose, then bet £5.
4. If you win at £5, then return to step 2.
If you lose, then bet £8.
5. If you win at £8, then return to step 3.
If you lose, then bet £13.
6. If you win at £13, then return to step 4.
If you lose, then bet £21.
7. If you win at £21, then return to step 5.
If you lose, then bet £34.
8. If you win at £34, then return to step 6.
If you lose, return to step 1.

Recommended variant for the high roller: Instead of going down 2 steps with each win, go down 1 step with each win, until you win 2 in a row – then go down 2 steps. This variant may be as likely as any system to help you in the long run, and in the meanwhile you get some tremendous wins and excitement.

There are numerous other variants. However the usual Fibonacci is extremely unsatisfactory for the high roller – you lose often and never win big. Whereas for the player who prefers not to bet 34 times his minimum stake if possible, it is debatable whether Fibonacci is any better than Martingale or just gives you 2 extra steps and then helps you fall off the cliff more often. Therefore, no Fibonacci is recommended for the cautious player.

Matches with Odds of 1.01

 Here is my new strategy I have been thinking about. Every now and then I see bookmakers post a match with a big favourite on a odd 1,01. I never see any odds below 1,01 (although some bookmakers just don’t offer the match at all when the chances of the favourite winning are much bigger).

My strategy (which I must admit is pretty boring) based on the fact that some bookmakers DO offer matches which are clearly going to go one way. They offer the match anyway, with odds of 1,01, because that’s the minimum.

I would like to try betting on these matches, in which it is clearly obvious that there’s just too big of a difference in class to ever be another outcome then a winning of the favourite (and the loser already does well just not losing with too big of numbers).

For example: The World Cup Handball. You have countries like Qatar and Kuwait (and a lot more non-European) participating, which really can’t play any handball at all. I believe f.e. Kuwait – Russia that starts in just 45 min, if you play this match 100 times, Russia will win 100 times, maybe even if you play the match a 1000 times, just because one team is much much much stronger than the other (and the result really does matter, so no chance of the favourite side of playing a b-squad and low motivation). Bookies shouldn’t offer this match at all, but apparently for some reason do (perhaps because they want to offer a full selection to their customers).

This strategy DOESN’T mean you should take every 1,01 you can find. because that’s the minimum.

Soccer: Chelsea – Portsmouth 1X did 1,01 at Unibet, but if you play this match a 100 times i give Portsmouth a good chance of winning at least once. You should find the odds in more obscure games (like handball, where difference in quality is much much bigger, because the sport isn’t played on such a consistently high level.

This weekend I spotted a few (f.e. also handball: Skjeberg – Larvik for example which ended 22-48 ), but i must admit there won’t be a lot of betting going on because the 1,01-games i’m looking for are pretty rare. Since a 100 bets should be won before you lose once to even make it even, it will be a long term affair which should be taken with a large bank (which means high risk if you do lose, but my hypothesis is that you won’t), but i really believe it can be done long term.

Laying a Golf Bet

 Golf betting is a notoriously tricky thing for a punter to wrap their heads around, because the fields are large and the courses vary so much. Trying to pick the winner of a golf event is not the same as trying to pick a winner out of a soccer match therefore. There are way more options to look at of course than just two possible winners, so are you just picking the winner out of a hat?

No, firstly it is always worth studying form and course history, and course history for a player is the ultimate golden rule to assess. You will notice big trends of rookies having a hard time in competitive play because it is their first time out over a course. So avoid them. So narrow the field a bit in picking out a winner with the Form + course history stat combo. However, a golf field takes good shape after the first and second rounds, and usually a new favourite emerges.

So that is the time to take advantage of laying a bet on the favourite at BetFair. Just for clarification, when you are laying a bet, you are basically saying that believe an outcome is not going to happen. Say you lay a bet on a golfer at the top of the leader board after the second round, then you are staking that he is not going to go on and win. You are backing the entire rest of the field of the field to beat him.

Watching lay odds can be tricky because knowing just when to strike is the big key to all this. You don’t want to wait, naturally until a leader has ran up a six shot lead heading into the final round, and you don’t want to be too eager while there are a bunch of players all within one shot of the lead. So always take a plan into a laying a golf favourite. Now we may not be talking high margin profits here because of the odds on favourite, but again, I like building small profit rather than going all gung-ho.

So plan and don’t just shoot a random lay bet on the favourite because you’ll probably end up losing. Here is the big key to it all: there are times during a round of golf when a favourite is more likely to screw things up. If there is a difficult run of par 4’s coming up, as opposed to a two-shot drivable par five, then lay you bet ahead of the difficult run, not ahead of the easy hole. This is the huge benefit of live in play betting. That is the perfect time to lay a favourite in golf.

Plus…stick to wager limits that you have set yourself and stick to a price range.

Of course, it’s not always feasible to be tracking things live, so what do I look for when laying a favourite in golf betting? Odds at the end of a round. Be it at the first, second or third round, this is a good time to assess stats and form from a performance. Generally around the end of the first round is the riskiest option of all three, because someone generally shows up with a marvellous round and then falls away for the other three days. But if there is one of the pre-tournament favourites, say within a shot or two of the top at the start of day two, then they will probably be a strong option in the outright market. So whether it is a pre-tournament favourite, or an overnight leader making waves a favourite, laying them can produce some value.

So look at the odds. One rule of thumb I always use, is be guided by bookmaker odds, as they are never far from the mark. Laying a favourite at more than 1.8 is probably the limit heading in to day four. That is around the point where value is at its maximum on the favourite tanking. Again, you are not going to be looking at high profit margins on laying the favourite at the close of any round, but anywhere between 2.00 and 3.00 over the first couple of rounds is a decent shot in laying the favourite. A simple strategy, but it can be employed effectively.

Single Bets on NHL Games

 My betting system is based on single bets (you can not play system/combo with that kind of bets-bookie rules). NHL games.

1. Im betting on Bwin bookie.
2. I bet only on NHL games – an option: (When will the first two or five minute penalty be awarded (regular time)?) the quote this option is “2.5” if you take that the 1st penalty will be after 4:59 min of the game.
3. The quote for penalty from 00-4:59 in only 1.44 and does not present and “value” 4. The quote for no penalty is 80 (but there is some 0,1% chance)

See EXAMPLE:
On 22.12.2007 were played 11 games

*6 picks won
*5 picks lost

WON:
1. St Louis-Boston 1st penalty 16:42
2. Washington-NY Islanders 9:14
3. Carolina-Tampa Bay 18:04
4. LA Kings-Nashville 5:25
5. Vancouver-Phoenix 5:07
6. Montreal-Atlanta 24:52

WON = 6 games * 2.5 = (15)- (11 staked) = +4 Units

Example even if you lose 6 game and won only 5 you are also on plus in THIS CASE with 1,5 unit – tells you that there is not conditional to be more than 50% with your picks)

I am betting with this strategy for some 2 months. Some 70% of games finished with penalty after 4:59 min (the games I betted on).

I started with £5 for 1 unit. Now my unit is £25+ any my inputs are some 2-3 units.

Betting only NHL Handicaps

 The strategy i use most of the times is one i developed myself, but to be honest some other people might have used it before. I usually start with a bankroll of 500 units and play ONLY NHL handicaps.

I chose a team from the middle of the table which will face another team which is placed a bit below the team i chose the first time and see what the odds are for -1,5 on the 1st team. Usually if the teams are pretty close in standings the odds will be around 2.5 and thus from a 10 unit bet we will have a 15 units profit. If our team fails to beat the spread we will play martingale, meaning that we will double the amount we have played each time our handicap won’t be won. I consider this strategy as being a lot more effective than the draw martingale betting strategy used in football and a lot more rewarding than a simple martingale play.

From what i have noticed out 10 hockey games in which the favourite team wins 6 of them beat the -1,5 handicap. I have been using this strategy for almost 2 years now and have always rewarded me.

Betting on Hockey Games (NHL)

 I will introduce my betting strategy. I bet only on Hockey games (NHL) games. Bookie bwin is offering a very interesting betting option. “When will the first two or five minute penalty be awarded (regular time)?”

You have those 3 options:
00:01 – 04:59 min with 1.47
05:00 – 60:00 min with 2.50
No two or five minutes penalty 81.00 (saw only 2 times this season)

I always take the second option with @2.50.

* i don’t bet on all games on a day – there are some derbies and the are some early fights
* on average i take 6 games a day
* based on my statistisc i win 62,8% of games
* i started with 2€ per game (1st month) – now i am at 20€ per game (3rd month)
* ESPN NHL Score board -> here you have statistics (under score box)
* create your own statistics for every team for penalties (best in excel) then you
can easily choose which games are best to not bet on
* you can still win – even if you are under 50% (45%)! – reason is in the odds being @2.5

** example with 5 games:
Carolina – NY Islanders after 5 min
Minnesota – Vancouver after 5 min
Washington – Pittsburgh after 5 min
St. Louis – Nashville before 5 min
Buffalo – Phoenix before 5 min

3 won =(90€) 2 lost =(-40€)= 50€ clear money

Historical statistics calculations:
* average stake on one game in 3 months 11€
* 62.8% won games i played
*6 games in one day
=3.685 games won on day = 35.34€ daily winnings

The odds @2.50 are very good for making profit. As i said up even if you are under 50% you can win some cash. But for the start i suggest you to start with 1-2€ try to find out what games are good to not to bet on.

Good luck

Lay low and Back higher

 I have 2 basic strategies that I’m using both in tennis & basketball. The important of this strategy is to lay low and back higher. Betfair offers in-play of every NBA Basketball Game. In example Toronto @ Seattle pre match 2.20 on Seattle. Seattle goes up 20-10 in the first quarter, the odds on Betfair always overreact and odds here would be ~1.50-1.60. It’s almost certain that Toronto will cut the lead to at least 5 forcing the odds up to at least 1.70-1.80. So laying here at 1.50 – 1.60 is very good.

I have traded Basketball for some time now and I know they like to “bottle” their lead.

Another nice trading match was Miami @ Philadelphia some days ago. Philadelphia lead half time by 22 points. Odds on Betfair 1.06. Now the correct thing would be to lay Philadelphia for a small sum. Becouse in Basketball team’s “ease” when they lead by many points. Miami cut the lead to 77-81 and odds were now around 1.30. it was a nice trading match and I’m very sucessful with the strategy.

And you can always try to lay a team before a match and put up a back offer higher than the price you layed i.e layed at 1.90 and when Betfair put it in-play you can back at 1.93. Basketball is like Tennis, but in Basketball there are more swings, cousing the market up and down. The 1.93 could easily get matched just if the team you’ve backed lead by 2 points. And in basketball nearly every team trail by something during the match.

Long Odds and Short Odds Betting Strategy for NBA Matches

 This is perhaps one of the greatest misconceptions in the world of sports betting. Fact: Upsets occur from time to time. Bigger Fact: Many times the underdog gives the favourite a tough match and fall just short in the end.

To those of you who bet solely with bookmakers you’d probably be saying ‘yeah so what? They still lost’. The answer to that question is 4 words. ‘Betting Exchanges’ and ‘Lay Betting’. The combination of Betting Exchanges, Lay betting, heavy favourites and near upsets offers the perfect environment to make a profit regardless of the outcome. By placing a few well-timed wagers you can guarantee yourself a profit in the match. This is known as ‘Greening Up’.

Let’s look at how to do this. In simple terms there are two main ways to Green Up in the NBA, when there is a clear favourite and a big priced outsider.

Backing the Outsider: You’ve done your research and think the underdog might give a bit of cheek, so you place $100 on them at $5.00 before tip-off. They start well and are level at 3 quarter time. Their price has now come in and you can ‘Lay Them’ at $4.40 for $105. Now, if they go on to win, you’ll pocket $500 but payout $462 for a $38 profit. If they lose, you’ll be down the original $100, but you’ll pick up the $105 stake from the Lay bet, profiting you $5. Guaranteed profit regardless of the next 3 quarters. If the scores were level at the start of the 4th quarter you might have been able to lay them at $3 to increase your profit.

Laying the short favourite: Odds of $1.01 before the match, you can lay them for $10 meaning that if they win, you’ll lose $10, but if they lose you’ll pocket $1000. Whilst this in itself can produce some nice results, a nice even start to the match can open up the betting opportunities for you. If the scores are level at half time for example, the odds on the favourite might blow out to $1.10 to win the match. You can back them for $950. So here your total outlay is $960 and you will either collect $1000 or $1045 giving you a profit of either $40 or $85.

How to Identify suitable matches

This is not always clear cut, but because your initial lay bet is so small at least your risk is going to be minimal. Some things to look out for are short favourites on the road, or coming off a physical match the night before. Or perhaps they have an important match the following night with a fellow title contender and might be focussed on that too early. Similarly, look for outsiders that need to prove a point. Perhaps they are fresher and returning home after a road trip, or have copped some flak in the media for recent performances. Perhaps their starting 5 are ok but they lack depth in the squad meaning they’ll be competitive for the first quarter before starting to suffer in the second when they give the bench players their time.

But for those of you familiar with basketball you’ll know that teams go on scoring runs at various stages of the match and this will affect prices after each point. Going on a 6-0 scoring run will swing the price one way and then going on an 0-6 run will swing the prices the other way again. The price movements in an NBA game are so frequent that pretty much EVERY NBA game will have opportunities to Green Up if you time your bets suitably.

Greening up can only be done with any degree of success through Betting Exchanges because unlike bookies, they allow you to both Back and Lay selections.

Information and Statistics in Basketball Betting

 My favourite zone of bettings are basketball matches. They’re underestimated by many betters, but basketball brings many options to bet – but I bet most on 2way(ML), 2way with handicap, Over and Under x points. The success come as result of a lot of work – information about the game and statistics for the two teams. When I decide to play the match X, I take into consideration a few factors, which I estimate from 1 to 10, and decide which bet will I take – 1 or 2(2way with or without pointspread), Under or Over number of points.

Factor Number 1 is the form of the two teams – I estimate for example the form of team A with 9(9 wins in last 10 matches) and the form from team B with 3(3 wins in last 10 matches of the team), so here I’ve got big difference between the recent form of the two teams. —-> Note 1

The second factor is the info about this game

• Key missings(players,coaches)- if there is a big absence for one of the teams I estimate this with 2 punkts lower. If there’re 2 missings with 5 – so then the note of this component for this team will be 5(by 2 key missings). —-> Note 2
• How have the two teams played in the last three games – except the record – for example W(won)L(lost)W(won), I read about the level of their play in this matches. Then I add the notes of the 3 games and do one note for the level of play of the team in this 3 games.—-> Note 3
• For every match I find the weakness and strength of the two teams and I estimate which team will have advantage. —–> Note 4

And the third factor are statistics. I do one note for all of its components: —–> Note 5

• The tradition in the years – for example the hosts have advantage in the years
• The form of the teams at home and away from home, and are they in winning-streak or losing-streak
• How many points scored they in past matches at home, away from home and overall.
• How many points became they in past matches at home, away from home and overall.
• Is it team A/B a high scoring team, low scoring team, good-defensive team, weak-defensive team.

I add the notes

Note 1A(10 max) + Note2A(10 max) + Note3A(10 max) + Note4A(10 max) + Note5A(10 max) = NoteA(50 max)

Then I do the same with the notes for the second team:
Note1B + Note2B + Note3B + Note4B + Note5B = NoteB

Then I deduct from NoteA(overall note for the team A) the NoteB.

If the difference is lower than 3 it will be a close game, and I skip this game or try it Under or Over X. points, based on the notes of the statistics.

If the difference is between 3 and 5 I bet on ML(2way). If the difference is higher than 5 I bet this game with pointspread.

Best wishes

Analyze Tennis Bets

 My name is Raimond and I want to share with my betting strategy.

I’m betting on tennis mostly, so I will tell about few tips. Firstly, tennis is one of hardest sport to bet on, because there are so many aspects that affect every match – form, previous meeting, surface, home factor, fatigue and of course mentality. So In my opinion these are most important if you want to be succesful tennis punter.

It took me more than two years to finally understand this sport. One thing that is very important is to see matches or at least get quality reports, because you must know players – must understand his current motivation, physical condition and so on. I mostly bet on players that I have seen recently and know their playing abilities at current day. For example last weeks of year usually known with top players tanking to not so good players. And I took advantage of that. For example this week there was several matches where Djokovic lost due fatigue and odds were great against him.

Another factor is amazing form that player can show in one tournament like Ferrer did in in Shanghai – great form in final tournament and odds were great in almost all matches ( lowest were 1.50, highest 3.50). Also there is some players who I almost never fade like Nalbandian & Safin. They can cause surprises in both ways – Safin showed bad signs end of season, but Nalbandian was awful all season, but showed incredible tennis last month, beating Federer twice and now is one of favorites to win Australian Open.

So all in all, my main strategy to bet on tennis are

1. Proper Analyze at current cricumstances
2. Watching matches to see more than stats show
3. Use Your previous experience
4. Find value using first three points

Trading WTA Tennis Matches Live

 Here is what I do:

Step 1) I will find a good matchup, where both players have a good chance to win the match.

Step 2) Then I will watch the match and wait for the first break to come.

Step 3) Now I will bet on the player who was broken or lay the player who broke (I will only bet if here is a break in one of the first 4 games of the 1st set).

Step 4) Then I will wait and hope the player who was broken will re-break and get back to “equal” at some point doing the match. And then I will make a surebet.

Example:

Player 1 odds 2.10 – Player2 odds 1.9 before start of the match.

Player2 break in game 3 and the score is now 1-2 in 1st set Player2 to serve. Odds are now 3.00 and 1.50. I make place a bet on Player1 @3.00.

Later in the 1st set Player1 breaks back, and the score is now 5-5 and the odds 2.05 and 1.95. I buy bet Player2 @1.95, and I have made a surebet of about 18%

Often you can make much more because of the many breaks in the in WTA matches. Depending on how big a risk you are willing to take, and how patient you are. I also like to lay a player who has won the first set by 6-0 or 6-1. Of cause they will win 2nd set too sometimes, and I loose, but very often they don’t, and I can make a huge surebet, because of the big difference in the odds. I have often seen 1.05 or lower cracked.

It’s a strategy that takes time and practice to master, but can be very profitable if you learn when to buy and when you have to get out of it. Try to watch some games and follow the marked prices, look at the graphs.

This strategy can also be used to bet on other sports, but be careful. I have used it on basketball, volleyball and ATP tennis too with succeed, but the most important thing is to find the games where you expect big up and down swings doing the match.

Betting on surprise wins in WTA tennis

 I like to bet on tennis the most of all out of all sports.

I am not saying that I bet on underdogs all the time, as that is not a strategy.

What I notice is a lot of upset in women’s tennis, especially in the tournaments of lower status than Grand Slams. Of course in men’s tennis this happens too, especially in the ATP 250 and 500 tournaments, but more often I see this trend in the WTA. Why do these upsets happen? I believe that it is because the seeded players often are not with so much motivation, and are upset a lot in quarters and semi finals.

I try to look for low odds on a player (the favourite) to win a match, and then I look up that player’s head to head record against their opponent (the underdog). If the underdog has strong history against the player that is more highly favoured in the odds, then that is what I bet upon to win. I give example to you now of this. In the WTA Rome, I found a match-up listed between Flavia Penneta and Lucie Safarova, with Safarova’s odds presented at a long 4.33!

Penneta, the favourite, had very low odds at 1.15 and this line immediately caught my eye, and so I investigated the head to head of two players. I saw that Safarova had won the last two match-ups with Penneta, so I put a stake on Safarova and I won! Even if the history is not as favourable for the underdog after looking at the head to head, but the underdog has shown fight, has pushed the higher ranked player hard in previous encounters, it is still worth taking a wager on the underdog.

The underdog does not win all the time of course! If one does not feel so confident to bet outright on the underdog, then the handicap is also good to betting option to look at. This would not yield as much money on your stake, but there is still nice profit if you win with the coverage on the handicap.

I see almost every day that there are upsets in tennis, and on some days, a lot more than just a few! Looking up past match history of players matched up currently, can help you find more probably upsets. An upset in tennis can really cash in some nice profit, since lines are at much more of a discrepancy than other sports .

OK, you now know a good strategy to make some good money, huh! Use this in betting of the tennis!

Bye!

Betting on Tennis (Correct Score Sets)

 I like to bet on tennis games because there are fewer factors that are decisive for this sport in my view. In this sport there are only two possible outcomes that boosts chances of winning. You can’t say is same thing in soccer (2 way bets) when you play asian handicap because strong teams that have big handicap (AH -1.5 , AH -1.25) are not always interested to win by a big margin. Tennis players are interested to finish their games as fast as possible and rest. You depend just on one player to win you bet not on an entire team. Is better to bet on big tournaments where players have bigger motivation to win.

To help me decide easier which bets to take I use these sites:

• ATP Tour
• Steve G Tennis
• WTA Tour
• Match Stat
• and tournament official site.

My strategy:

My bets are usually correct score sets: 2-0 (or 3-0 in big tournaments). To do that bet I select games from bookmaker’s offer.

Step 1) I like to bet on strong favourites to win with straight odds about 1.20~1.50 (but odds aren’t main factor for choosing my bet) and I select from offer games with indicated odds;

Step 2) search info about surface that games are played at http://tennis.matchstat.com or official tournament webpage. Surface is very important in tennis and a good player can become bad player on other surface;

Step 3) now exclusion part: at first step I selected almost blindly games (only looking at odd). From games I selected at step 1, I check whether all favourite players ( favourite is made by bookmaker ) are strong enough on surface that is played.

— I exclude players with poor performances on playing surface (false favourite): I check winning /losing record on this surface and current form (he is losing/winning lately ? winning gives to a player peace);

— search for serve percentages , average serving speed or returning balls percentage won (he is a fighter)

Odds for straight win were about 1.2~1.5 but if that player is really favourite he should be able to win in straight sets : 2-0 ( or 3-0 ) and odds for correct score are bigger: from 1.2 at straight win , at least 1.6 for 2-0 ; from 1.4~1.5 at straight win , at least 1.9 ~2.0

Money management: fixed amount of money bet every time. Check bookmaker tennis rules!!! Sometimes players are injured and they have to retire. Is better to place bets on bookmakers with “match completed” rule.

My statistic (average) from 78 games with 2-0 and 3-0 bets:
53 winning bets, average odds 1.87
25 losing bets, average odds 1.95

Horse Betting System

 I am not a horse racing expert. I do not know anything about the horses entered into any horse race other than what you can you find on the racing sheet. But I do enjoy watching and wager on the Triple Crown…always have, probably always will.

I use to frequent local OTB places and on occasion will spend an afternoon ‘playing the ponies‘ with some other friends that also enjoy the same. My betting ‘system’ is fairly simple. I don’t like to wager a lot of money on one race, so I usually will box-exacta, selecting horses that are middle to high odds. Hitting just one of these (which usually happens if you bet on several races in a day) will sometimes get you over $100 on a $2 bet…some days I have been super lucky and hit multiple such wagers.

Laying false favourites in horse racing betting

 Horse racing: laying false favourites (strategy for laying horse racing favourites that are under- priced and do not have as good of a chance winning as the odds suggest)

Betting exchanges have been a great invention. They have enabled your average Joe to strike bets on horses to lose (lay bets), much in the same way that the traditional bookmakers have done for centuries. As the bookmakers are the ones who generate significant profits year on year, common sense dictates it is a shrewd move to follow the practices of the traditional firms. Betting on outsiders to lose is a strategy that can result in long winning streaks, however when that 50/1 outsider defies all logic and recent form, bolting up, the betting bank can quickly vanish.

Instead, laying false favourites is a lower risk strategy which can produce more consistent long term returns. False favourites are horses whose odds do not accurately reflect their chance of success, with the market having the horses priced up at shorter odds than they should be. But just how do you pick a false favourite?

False favourites come in numerous guises. Their incorrect odds can often be the basis of reputation, jockeys, connections and tipsters. We take a look at each individually:

Reputation
Some horses often start races off at artificial odds due to their reputation. A first time out 2yo or 3yo that has been well touted in the Racing Post, may attract a lot of money and be favourite. However, delving deeper, we find that the trainer only has a 4% strike rate with the newcomers, and the sire is even worse, with its offspring winning just 3% of the time on their first racecourse visit. Based on these stats, the horse does not justify its position being so short.

Jockeys
Punter mindset can play a big role on the odds of a horse. Anything ridden by Frankie Dettori, or Tony McCoy is sure to attract money in the betting shops in the morning. The bookmakers will have liabilities on these runners and so will bet into the betting exchanges to reduce the odds of the horse and thus limit their potential losses. Consequently, horses ridden by these jockeys will tend to be under-priced.

Connections
Certain connections (owners/trainers and those associated with a horse) have a fear factor with bookies and punters. Any hint of support for one of their runners is often met with market overreaction. Also some trainers see their runners through rose tinted glasses, will give positive reports and back the horses, but the results are not as good as they hope. For example, Charles Hills favourites are 54/187 (29%) for loss of -£52 when backed to £1 level stakes. Expected winners 67. His horses only win 80% of the races they should do and often make good false favourites.

Tipsters
Tipster’s selections make some great false favourites. Those who have a good following will often crash the odds of a horse due to sheer weight of money. The amount bet on a horse reduces its price, but does not increase its chance of success. Great false favourite.

Once you have identified what you believe to be a false favourite, the next step is how to implement a strategy to maximise profits. A fixed stake strategy can be chosen when laying favourites, as the liability of losing is unlikely to be significant. As a rule of thumb, the lay stake should be around 1% of the betting bank to ensure that any anomalous run of results does not leave you broke. At the end of each month, check your betting bank and whatever it is, change the lay stake to 1% of that figure. If you are accurately able to determine horses that may be false favourites and make a profit, this form of ratchet staking will see your profits grow exponentially.

Horse Racing Each Way Betting Strategy

 One great betting strategy that I use is to give myself coverage when making an Each Way Bet. This is a really simply strategy to employ and what sport does each way betting lend itself best to? Horse racing of course (though this strategy can be used in any sport). Firstly, understand what the real basis of an each way bet is.

It is one bet to place and one to win, so two bets combined into one, and generally you only use it if you think you horse will do OK. When you think that it has a decent outside shot at winning, but isn’t the favourite.

The first step is to work out the return that you would get if your horse just places. This is where it all begins. So if you have backed at 10/1 shot at £10, then a place market paying out at 1/4 odds will give you £15. This is the figure with which you need to work.

So, you then take that potential £15 from a place finish and make an outright winner stake on the same horse. So you are laying out more in stake, but you have given yourself coverage. This is what I do, broken down.

£10 each way on Horse A at 10/1 = £20 stake
This bet returns £100 for a win
This bet returns £15 for a place

So place a further £15 stake (the value of a place payout) on Horse A winning outright at 10/1 = £15 stake This bet returns £150 for a win

So, what are the outcomes with this doubling up method?

Win: If the horse wins, then great, you make £250 from a £35 stake (over the two bets).

Place: If the horse places, which is what you expected by taking an each way option, then you get £15 from the Each Way bet, but as you spent £15 on the outright market, you haven’t lost from the second bet.

Worse case scenario though, is that the horse fails to place, which means you have lost two stakes.

If you pick out a horse and you earmark it for at least a place finish, then you should be confident of creating an opportunity with this horse racing betting strategy.

Using the favorite as bet insurance

 This is by no means a “system“, but it’s a strategy that I use.

I choose two bets. One which is odds on, and you are very confident on, and the second is more of an outside bet, but which you feel has good value. The easiest way to explain, is with an example:

• Deportivo la Coruna vs Barcelona – Barcelona to win (1/3)
• Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao – Bilbao to win (4/1).

I put a certain amount of money on Barcelona – let’s say £5. This would return £6.67, which is £1.67 in winnings. I put this amount on the outside bet. So I put £1.67 on Bilbao to win, which returns £8.35 (£6.68 in winnings). If Barcelona win, as you’d expect, I have already made my money back. And then if Bilbao win, I make my profit, but if they don’t, I am not down.

• Deportivo la Coruna vs Barcelona – £5 on Barcelona to win (returns £6.67)
• Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao – £1.67 on Bilbao to win (returns £8.35).

 

• Both lose – I lose £6.67
• Barcelona win, Bilbao lose – £0
• Barcelona lose, Bilbao win – I win £1.68
• Both win – I win £8.35

The key to this, obviously, is that your banker triumphs. You can still win overall if they don’t, providing your outside bet lands, but it’s much less likely.

Focus all your bets on 3 leagues / 12 teams

 First of all, this betting strategy will only work for you if you have at least one hour every day to spend on studying football.

Select 3 leagues only!
Example: English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish La liga

Then from these 3 leagues select only 4 teams you will follow in each league:

Example:
ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE:

• Manchester united
• Chelsea
• Arsenal
• Tottenham

SPAIN LA LIGA:

• Real Madrid
• Barcelona
• Valencia
• Sevilla

GERMANY BUNDESLIGA:

• Bayern Munich
• Schalke 04
• Dortmund
• Mainz

Once you have selected your 12 teams do not even look at other games or teams! Remember these are your teams, you have to study them as thoroughly as possible! It would be impossible to study all teams and leagues properly, that’s why I recommend to focus on 3 leagues / 12 teams.

How to study:

1. Form:
Look for “form” in the team. How many games have they won in their last 3 matches? How many goals have they scored? If a team is in form, and they keep scoring goals, select them in your bet. Remember that home field advantage is a huge advantage too. So be careful!

2. Do not play teams wich have champions league games the following week! (DO NOT!)
E.g. if Real Madrid play a league game on saturday, and have a Champions league game on the following tuesday, leave Real Madrid out of your bet.

Teams in the champions league tend to rest their star players in preceding league games to be 100% strong for the Champions League games as it is a highly regarded cup competition. Look somewhere else in your team list. Ever wondered how a big team like Man united loses to a smaller team with high odds? Or why Real Madrid loses to Athletic Bilbao? 99.9% of the time in those cases they are resting players for Champions League matches the following week. So be careful!

3. Study your teams injuries!
Are their star players injured? E.g. Rooney has an ankle injury, so he is out of this week’s game … Will his substitute be as good? How many other injuries are there in the team? In the defence and offence. Very important!

4. Look at the table standings:
E.g. if Barcelona are 1st in the league table and Real Madrid second with 2 points behind, you know Real madrid is going to fight for those 3 valuable points in their next league game, and Barcelona will fight harder in their next game, to stay on top.

You need to be on top of all these things to make serious money!! So I hope you have an idea of how to bet properly.

Last tip: Do not bet on the following leagues: Italian serie A and B, Russian Premier League or any smaller league teams they are sometimes linked to match fixing as they get paid huge amounts of money to lose games.