How to Win at Keno

Excellent play keno system, based purely on mathematical odds and mathematical advantage. We are talking about betting on keno bookmakers, not itself a lottery where the chances to guess 20 of the 80 rooms of course illusory and what logic can not be. Bookmakers also offer a line of various events associated with the loss of balls, and it is used in this strategy. Once logged in any bookmaker accepting this kind of rates, we can see such quotes that fall out or fall in the next draw of a certain number. Usually it is 1.27 that he will drop out and, accordingly, there is no 3.8. Bookmakers correctly calculated the probability of occurrence of these events and put these coefficients otminusovav their margins. As a result, if a player in the long run will be put on the fact that the fall is the same what that number, in which he will win the circulation, in which the play, but in the end will be in the red by the amount laid down by the bookmaker margin. Similarly, the situation is with the rates of the form - "Number of rooms", such as numbers (21-30), here are quotes bookmakers - more or less 2.5 1.9 2.5 1.9, again minus the probability of margin and at a distance in the game will take. But sometimes occur protracted series, ie, some numbers may not drop and long in this case one can see that the quotes change, sometimes significantly, can be for example longer 1,9-1,9 and even 2,15-1,65. The basic error of players masses precisely in the fact that they are in such cases pose just on a smaller ratio, expecting that the series is not loss is interrupted, but the probability is completely independent from the previous deposition, she has no memory and is always constant and betting odds 2, 15 is a godsend for the player, as it is much higher than the probability of occurrence of this event, which is equal to 50/50. Playing at any ratio exceeding 2 player on the course will be in the black just by the amount that exceeds the two. It's like playing with someone in a coin eagle-tails, at a loss when you give 1 ruble, and if you win and pay 1 ruble 10 kopecks.

Bonus Hunting - a win-win strategy of betting on games

Bonus Hunting or hunt for bonuses appeared almost immediately after in the bookmakers began to explore the Internet. As competition in the network is quite high, it is necessary that there were some interesting proposals in order to attract players is to your website, so originally and started handing out bonuses. Bookmakers offered different amounts, as a reward the player for what he chose their service game, usually a bonus on your first deposit, depending on its size. In other words, you simply need to register online bookmaker, to deposit a certain amount and its own office for example doubled. Thus a player making a deposit of 200 dollars had already been in the game for 400. But these are just the bonus money he could not take off until it has fulfilled certain conditions for their wagering. Usually it's just a play on the money several times, in other words just bet. After fulfilling the conditions amount becomes available for withdrawal and bonus hunter safely deduced from the office and your deposit and bonus. Basically it's just may be classified as a win-win strategy game at the bookmaker, as a rule, the player himself is absolutely no risk, the task just to wash a bonus and do it correctly. The most common way this game is no risk to bet on the opposite outcome. As an example we can consider the same baseball, where there are no draws or bets on the total football. Bonus Hunter, registers two game accounts in different bookmakers. Get to each of them, respectively, an additional cash bonus, but for that would remove the money from the account must be at the start of play on them. Depending on the rules of the office itself, the amount you need to scroll through a number of times. If you put just guesswork is certainly possible and to lose in the end, but if you take a tennis match Sharapova - Kuznetsova and put in the same office for example Sharapova to win and the other to Kuznetsov, the course where yes is a win. But there are also some pitfalls, the coefficients and margin.

Fork win-win betting strategy on sport

Often in new players just starting playing career the question arises whether there is a win-win strategy of betting on sports? In fact, this strategy, or may even be a special kind of game on rates does exist and is known for experienced players for many years. This is called playing the forks between offices, even sometimes referred to arbitration situation. The bottom line is that the bookmakers do not always have the same vision of the quotations for a particular sporting event, and sometimes there is such a situation that some give to the victory of the first team, for example, a factor of 2, and the second to the opposite outcome of more than a factor of 2. It is not difficult to calculate and understand what is right by putting on both outcomes did not really lose. Opposing the coefficients of such a game can have a lot of variations, for example if one outcome 1.5 then you need to seek listing on the opposite outcome of more than 3, etc. This is an example with 2 outcomes, just as well, but for more complex formula, you can calculate the power plug and 3 source. Earlier, at the dawn of bookmaking, vilochniki collected printed line bookmakers and then for a long time they have studied and looked like a win-win bet, but now with the development of the Internet and will be able to put all in virtually any global bookmaker was not so easy to follow and analyze all possible events and quotes so players have come to the aid of the special program to search for plugs. Moreover, the use of the program approach is another important component, since the lifetime of the plug is not found so great. It is clear that the bookmaker will not sit back and wait until he will load at which the outcome and can simply change the ratio so that an arbitration situation will be gone. It's really a win-win betting on sports, but some pitfalls do exist and experienced vilochniki well aware of them and try to get round. As already stated above, one of the problems is the operative factor change bookmaker. And here it is not necessarily that the bookmaker he noticed that he was somewhere out there something inflated simply by such a win-win system, sports betting is played after all the other players who have the earlier time to put and and not a few, respectively, quotations dropped and the other player can arbitration situation and not take advantage of. Another time, when an obvious error in the line. New player forks, seeing that there is an opportunity to take in a Texas office for 1.8 and at the same time against him in the other 4, thinks that the bird caught the tail of luck, but in fact that's such expansion in the quotes, saying only that one of the bookies just made a technical error, put the course may succeed on that factor, but in 99% of cases will be the final return.

Strategy games on time match betting

This strategy has been published for several years on a single foreign portal dedicated to sports betting. The basis laid down is that half of football matches usually ends with the victory of the first team and in the same half of a draw in the first half. To play used games, a factor of at least 5.0 on the outcome of the draw / win 1. Select four games suitable for the condition - kp. on a home win in the range of 1.5-2 and at the same time draw / win 1 of at least 5.0. Next berutsja following combination bet: 4 single bet, the bet amount to 20 ue. each; 6 double parlays 15 ue. to express; 4 Tee 10 ye .; Express 1 of the four events, it is placed 5 ue. Only in the game involved 215 ue, the result can be read.: if you play only one match out of four, the total buudet negative, but not significant, even less than half of the total amount invoiced; if you play two games, then 575 will be payable ue., 3 if the game will end draw / win 1, then the payment already in 2675 ue. and finally, if all grow together 4 match, then the payment in this case would be 10775 ye. If you carefully choose the matches, the 2-3 will be hit very often, and the system will work in a nice plus, bringing revenue from rates.

Military strategy game in bookmakers.

Haphazard game sooner or later will lead you to ruin. To have success in the game with the bookmakers, layouts are necessary, firstly, to manage their financial capacity, and secondly to have a certain betting strategy. The best known examples of these strategies are listed here. FINANCIAL STRATEGIES Typically, the average player loses a lot of money because of the ill-considered financial strategy. Bookmakers sometimes give attractive rates, which forces players to pay attention to these games, which, whether factors normal, they would not have to put, and this leads to the fact that the players are transferred to the account of the extra money instead of spend it for example on tourism. And even if the player wins such rates, it is still in favor of the bookmaker, because he knows that the player is likely still a few weeks to lose and, and an additional deposit, and all because of the fact that incorrectly manages its resources. To avoid this from happening, you need to choose the right financial strategy. The most common are: FLAT flat profits Percentage of the pot Martingale D'Alembert and contra d'Alembert, OSCAR grind Kelly Criterion GAME STRATEGY Few (albeit important) to be able to dispose of the bank, you should still correct to use this bank, ie select the bid strategy - a strategy game. About these strategies, there are two polar opinions: some say that these strategies - the best way to multiply their capital, others - that the Dogon and the other - this is for losers. Each in its own right, but one thing is certain: unsystematic game - the surest way to enrich the bookies. outcome of the match SCORE TIME MATCH Dogon FORK VALUE BETTING

Theory of Probability and Sports Betting

This article is written especially for those who do not have a technical mind warehouse or poorly studied at the university (or at school) and not able to understand the physical meaning of the mathematical and probabilistic laws and how they are reflected in real life. Therefore, no complicated formulas or abstruse scientific definitions, you will not see here. We will try to tell you everything clear and simple language and explain to the illustrative examples. RESULT OF SPORTS EVENTS - Random variables This means that the result of the events on which you place a bet in the first place, not known in advance (if, of course, is not match-fixing, but even in these cases, the "misfire"), and secondly, at each event, there is a possibility its occurrence. The simplest and most understandable illustration of a random event - a perfect toss a coin, the coin is such that does not have any physical defects, that is, for example, it is not bent, not leaky and not ground off from any edge. For this coin is known beforehand that without the use of sleight of hand and other tricks she drops one of the parties, "heads" or "tails" with a probability of 50% or 0.5, that is, c equal chances. In coin with obvious physical defects also have a certain probability of loss of each party, but, in contrast to the perfect coin, they are not known in advance, but may be determined experimentally. Why the theory of probability can not be bypassed At gamblers There is a myth that the theory of probability in sports betting is not working, as the result of a sporting event affects too many accidents, including a lot depends on the human factor. But it's the same as if to assume that gravity does not act on the plane, since it allows him to fly, despite the weight of several hundred tons. And at the same time the plane did not flap its wings like a bird. What is the result of a sporting event depends on many contingencies, only it says that we can not advance and know exactly the probability of this outcome. Just as, for example, we can not determine the probability of loss of coins with defects, which throw up in a wind tunnel with the ever-changing strength and direction of the wind. But this does not mean that the theory of probability in such cases does not work. Probability and mathematical laws are actually the same fundamental laws of nature, like gravity. Just manifestations law of universal gravitation in real life the most obvious, and hardly anyone in their right mind would ever think to check it, for example, jumped from the roof and trying to take off, waving his hands, even knowing that the aircraft being in the thousands times heavier fly can. The laws of probability theory does not have the same clarity available, but that they do not stop working just as inevitably, no matter what your attitude toward them or understanding. HOW DOES THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY IN PRACTICE Probability of an event can be simplistically considered how often it happens. But there is an important nuance. For example, the probability of one of the parties a perfect coin 50% or 1/2 = 0.5, meaning that on average, each of the parties should fall once the two throws. But in fact, you can toss a coin ten times, and everything will fall ten times, for example, the "eagle." This nuance is called "dispersion", and that he often misleads many players, even those who, like, consider themselves familiar with the principles of probability theory. In fact, the value of probability (it is called the expectation) is the frequency with which the event will occur in an infinite number of attempts. The fewer tests (in our example, throws a coin), the more (in percentage terms) the actual outcome may deviate from expectation. This is the variance, that is a clear influence of chance on the outcome of this particular test. But also at variance has its limits, for example, if you throw ten "heads" of the ten shots the perfect coin, though very rare, but nevertheless probable event, see a hundred "eagles" after a hundred shots already, in principle, impossible. The number of deletions "eagles" after a hundred shots perfect, emphasize once again, the coins may range from about 40 to 60. After 1000 shots - from 440 to 560. And so on. Substantial output beyond this will only mean that our coin is not really ideal, for example, she has shifted the center of gravity. Theory of Probability and betting odds How it relates to sports betting? The most direct way! At sports events, on which you place a bet: the victory of one of the teams, a draw or Thoth, also has its own probability, or the frequency with which it should take place under constant conditions. But, unlike the perfect coin, this probability is not known in advance to anyone, even the bookmakers. One thing is clear: none of the events in the sport does not happen 100% probability, even as we have noted above, match-fixing. This means that any bet may lose, that is, "100% sure thing" win-win betting or does not exist. This is the first and most important thing that you need to remember about the theory of probability in sports betting. So, the real probability of a sporting event no one knows, even the bookie. Simplistically we can say that the most probability he estimates, giving factor for this event. And this estimate is approximately equal to the value of 1 / ratio (theoretically more involved here and the bookmaker margin, but to keep things simple, we will ignore it). That is, the ratio of 2 corresponds exactly to the probability 1/2 = 50%. Contact formula 1 / probability (expressed in the format from 0 to 1), respectively, will give us a minimum break-even rate ratio for a given probability. A ratio of about 1.10 reflects the probability of 1 / 1.10 = 90.9%. What can be described in words, as an event that should occur, on average 9 times out of 10. But do not forget about the dispersion! At a short distance from the specified event likely to happen 20 times out of 20 (that often enters into euphoria inexperienced players catch a similar successful series, which makes them believe that they have discovered the "magic grail"). And two times in a row could not happen three times or even four times in a row, although the latter will happen rarely, but still will, from time to time. And we can calculate how often this will happen. In an unfortunate opportunity to play four consecutive bets with a coefficient of 1.10 also has its own probability. If we assume that the bookmaker ratio roughly corresponds to the real probability of the event (that "on set" several rates will be far from the truth), then the probability of an unsuccessful series of N lost bets in a row can be calculated by the formula: (1 - 1 / ratio) in degree N. For four consecutive losses ratio 1.10 obtain the probability of (1 - 1 / 1.10) to the power of 4 = 0.0000683 or curved, 1 time out of 14 000. Again, note the variance! This does not mean that you can safely "slip" 13 999 times, and "get" exactly 14 000th. No, exactly the same chance of such misfortune can happen to you as essentially later than 14 000th times, and immediately on the first try, but also more than once on some of the segments of 14 000 tests. And it does not depend on how much you believe in this rate. Another common misconception is that many players believe: after losing one, and even more than a few bets in a row, the probability of winning the next rate increase. And why use progressive betting strategies, such as the Dogon. Alas, it is not so. In fact, the probability of winning your bet does not depend on how much time you have lost before. The same after you throw a few "heads" in a row, the probability to throw in the next roll of the "tails" in a perfect coin does not change and remains the same 50%. It is also necessary to remember. Statistical significance As you probably already understand, it is impossible to make reliable conclusions about whether profitable bets on the race or not, after only 10 attempts. And even after the 100 still can not. Because of the dispersion of your real results at a distance can be very different from that shown in this short stretch, to the point that to be in the end, negative, despite the first 10 or 100 bets with profit. Number of bids you want to do before to evaluate the quality of your game is called statistically significant sample size. The minimum number of it depends on the used coefficients. The higher the coefficient - the greater the dispersion, the need to make more bets, to understand where they have zavedut. For roughly equally likely events (rates around 2) you need to do at least 500, preferably 1000 bets before the first serious conclusions. Wow? What do you think! Statistics such a thing. Now you should be clear that various kinds of "Kapper" (predictions sellers), showing as proof of their success short series of multiple bets, in fact, do not prove anything. MARGIN, or why sports betting, as opposed to the casino, you can earn Perfect, "a spherical bookmaker in a vacuum", makes a margin. Margin - is a small "supplement" to the probability that makes the loss ratio for the player, if this probability is known in advance and accurately. In the example of an ideal coin for the probability of 50% on the "eagle" and "tails" break-even point will correspond to the coefficients for 2 on that and the other. If we put 100 rubles, still on that "eagle" or "tails", in 50% of cases, we will win $ 100 * 2 = 200 rubles, and in 50% of cases - play for $ 100. Total 50% * 100 * 2 (our winnings) -50% * 100 (our losses) will give us zero - we will stay even. But again, what? That's right, the variance. This is true for a very large number of times (ideally - infinite), that professional players called "distance". That is, in the distance we will remain at their, and, for example, after 10 bets on these rolls on such factors (Repetition is the mother of learning!), Our results can vary in a very wide range, from a loss of 1,000 rubles to win the same in 1000. But you have to assess the profitability or unprofitability of its rate is at a distance, if you seriously and are going for a long time to make betting on sports, and do not expect to catch a successful band ( "positive dispersion of emissions"), take the money and never return to the rates in bookmakers. The sad truth is that a known equally probable events (eg, virtual games) you in any bookmaker will not see a factor of 2: he will always be lower, just on the size of the margin. That is about 1.97 in the most advanced bookmakers like Pinnacle, and up to 1.80, and even lower in the most greedy bookmakers. It is easy to find, putting the equiprobable events at a rate below 2, we get a loss in the distance. It unites the bookmakers with casino, where, for example, on the roulette there is always a sector of "zero", which plays the role of margins. After payment of even money bets at roulette (red / black, odd / ODD) also goes by a factor of 2, but because of the "zero" probability of actually slightly below 50%. Since the "paid" 36 numbers on the wheel, and "zero" - 37 th, this difference, "the casino margin" at roulette, is exactly equal to 1/37. At a distance it guarantees a profit for the casino, and for the players - a loss. This fact leads to one more popular among players myth: many people believe that because of the margin of bookmakers have a steady income at a distance, betting on sports, in principle, impossible. But there is one major difference bookmaker from the casino, which radically changes the situation. If casino games all the probabilities are known in advance, the real probabilities of the sports events (not to be confused with the virtual "horses" and other betting games disguised as machine guns), as you already know, is not known to anyone, including the bookmakers! Therefore it is quite real, furthermore, regularly occur a situation where bookmakers give higher ratios for two events whose real probability is around 50%. What (you already know how to find it) means profit on the distance to the player making such bets! And Margin here is of no importance. If one of the two equally likely events given above factor 2, the margin size affects only the magnitude of the coefficient on the opposite outcome. It will be the lower, the higher the margin of the bookmaker, but we have what difference, we're not going to bet on the opposite event, is not it ?! Another indication that the margin is not an obstacle for earnings on rates is the existence of "forks". But indirect evidence that betting analytics is not without sin when assessing the probabilities of events and exhibiting them coefficients, this line of motion when, at times, the favorite in the match with changes to just the opposite over time. Most often this is due to the fact that customers bookmaker too much put on one of the events. But foolish as to believe that excessive amounts of bets players alter the probability of this event! Of course not, in fact, that only means that analysts initially misjudged him. And in general, contrary to popular belief, the primary purpose of a bookmaker is not solution of the problem as close as possible to reality, to determine the probability of each event. Much more important for the bookmaker correctly predict the proportion of betting players that, regardless of the outcome of the match to get a uniform profit from all outcomes. Finally, if the margin is ensured bookmakers profits in the same way as it does for the casino, would we have heard about the mass cases of reduction of the limit rates or even completely block the accounts of successful players, as well as other tricks, especially for unscrupulous bookmakers to avoid paying the winnings ? How often do you cut interest rates limits the players at the casino? If only we are not talking about the obviously fraudulent activities, then never. But bookmakers repression against players thrive all the time, and is easier to call the bookmakers who do not repair any obstacles to those who have won, in fact, those currently in the entire global network of only two: Pinnacle and Sbobet. All other online bookmakers all the forces will try to show the door you as soon as you manage to start winning, and some bookmakers you can get a "black mark", even being in the red, just because your style of betting might seem employees of the office of potentially winning ! WHEN THE MARGIN has a significant impact Despite all the above, there are cases where the margin is still a significant barrier. And it is much-loved by the majority of casino players express. Let's see what happens with the expectation of our rates, if we take them to express. Suppose we put on equally probable events on the coefficient of 1.98 (the minimum margin on the market) and will collect five such rapid rates. Factor in this Express will equal 30.43. The actual probability of winning 3.125%. And what is the break-even rate for such a possibility? 1 / 0.03125 = 32! It would seem that for a single rate of break-even point we are only in the ratio of 0.02, and in five fingers express the difference has increased by more than half the unit! This shows that the influence of the margin in the expression is enhanced, in general, it is multiplied by the number of events to express. Estimating the probability of sporting events It was shown above that the secret to success in sports betting is not contrary to mathematics or probability theory and formulated quite simple at first glance: it is necessary to choose the rate at which the bookmaker factor incorrectly estimates the probability of the event, making it profitable for the player. In the example of equally probable events have to choose one of them, which is given to the above factor of 2. It is best with some margin (for example, from 2.10 and up) at the bookmaker, to take into account the effect of estimation error and reduce the potential damage from a local variance. But the difficulty is that the methods of objective assessment of the likelihood of sporting events does not exist. We can not take any objective (ie not dependent on someone else's opinion) data, such as statistics, enter them into some sort of program that on the basis of these data will give certainly true probability of an upcoming event, at least approximately. An important role in assessing the probability of a sporting event always plays a view assessing which forms the basis of own impressions about the game athletes, or based on any other premises. Many people confuse the probability of occurrence of an event in the future and its frequency in the matches already held.

Theory of Probability and Sports Betting

This article is written especially for those who do not have a technical mind warehouse or poorly studied at the university (or at school) and not able to understand the physical meaning of the mathematical and probabilistic laws and how they are reflected in real life. Therefore, no complicated formulas or abstruse scientific definitions, you will not see here. We will try to tell you everything clear and simple language and explain to the illustrative examples. RESULT OF SPORTS EVENTS - Random variables This means that the result of the events on which you place a bet in the first place, not known in advance (if, of course, is not match-fixing, but even in these cases, the "misfire"), and secondly, at each event, there is a possibility its occurrence. The simplest and most understandable illustration of a random event - a perfect toss a coin, the coin is such that does not have any physical defects, that is, for example, it is not bent, not leaky and not ground off from any edge. For this coin is known beforehand that without the use of sleight of hand and other tricks she drops one of the parties, "heads" or "tails" with a probability of 50% or 0.5, that is, c equal chances. In coin with obvious physical defects also have a certain probability of loss of each party, but, in contrast to the perfect coin, they are not known in advance, but may be determined experimentally. Why the theory of probability can not be bypassed At gamblers There is a myth that the theory of probability in sports betting is not working, as the result of a sporting event affects too many accidents, including a lot depends on the human factor. But it's the same as if to assume that gravity does not act on the plane, since it allows him to fly, despite the weight of several hundred tons. And at the same time the plane did not flap its wings like a bird. What is the result of a sporting event depends on many contingencies, only it says that we can not advance and know exactly the probability of this outcome. Just as, for example, we can not determine the probability of loss of coins with defects, which throw up in a wind tunnel with the ever-changing strength and direction of the wind. But this does not mean that the theory of probability in such cases does not work. Probability and mathematical laws are actually the same fundamental laws of nature, like gravity. Just manifestations law of universal gravitation in real life the most obvious, and hardly anyone in their right mind would ever think to check it, for example, jumped from the roof and trying to take off, waving his hands, even knowing that the aircraft being in the thousands times heavier fly can. The laws of probability theory does not have the same clarity available, but that they do not stop working just as inevitably, no matter what your attitude toward them or understanding. HOW DOES THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY IN PRACTICE Probability of an event can be simplistically considered how often it happens. But there is an important nuance. For example, the probability of one of the parties a perfect coin 50% or 1/2 = 0.5, meaning that on average, each of the parties should fall once the two throws. But in fact, you can toss a coin ten times, and everything will fall ten times, for example, the "eagle." This nuance is called "dispersion", and that he often misleads many players, even those who, like, consider themselves familiar with the principles of probability theory. In fact, the value of probability (it is called the expectation) is the frequency with which the event will occur in an infinite number of attempts. The fewer tests (in our example, throws a coin), the more (in percentage terms) the actual outcome may deviate from expectation. This is the variance, that is a clear influence of chance on the outcome of this particular test. But also at variance has its limits, for example, if you throw ten "heads" of the ten shots the perfect coin, though very rare, but nevertheless probable event, see a hundred "eagles" after a hundred shots already, in principle, impossible. The number of deletions "eagles" after a hundred shots perfect, emphasize once again, the coins may range from about 40 to 60. After 1000 shots - from 440 to 560. And so on. Substantial output beyond this will only mean that our coin is not really ideal, for example, she has shifted the center of gravity. Theory of Probability and betting odds How it relates to sports betting? The most direct way! At sports events, on which you place a bet: the victory of one of the teams, a draw or Thoth, also has its own probability, or the frequency with which it should take place under constant conditions. But, unlike the perfect coin, this probability is not known in advance to anyone, even the bookmakers. One thing is clear: none of the events in the sport does not happen 100% probability, even as we have noted above, match-fixing. This means that any bet may lose, that is, "100% sure thing" win-win betting or does not exist. This is the first and most important thing that you need to remember about the theory of probability in sports betting. So, the real probability of a sporting event no one knows, even the bookie. Simplistically we can say that the most probability he estimates, giving factor for this event. And this estimate is approximately equal to the value of 1 / ratio (theoretically more involved here and the bookmaker margin, but to keep things simple, we will ignore it). That is, the ratio of 2 corresponds exactly to the probability 1/2 = 50%. Contact formula 1 / probability (expressed in the format from 0 to 1), respectively, will give us a minimum break-even rate ratio for a given probability. A ratio of about 1.10 reflects the probability of 1 / 1.10 = 90.9%. What can be described in words, as an event that should occur, on average 9 times out of 10. But do not forget about the dispersion! At a short distance from the specified event likely to happen 20 times out of 20 (that often enters into euphoria inexperienced players catch a similar successful series, which makes them believe that they have discovered the "magic grail"). And two times in a row could not happen three times or even four times in a row, although the latter will happen rarely, but still will, from time to time. And we can calculate how often this will happen. In an unfortunate opportunity to play four consecutive bets with a coefficient of 1.10 also has its own probability. If we assume that the bookmaker ratio roughly corresponds to the real probability of the event (that "on set" several rates will be far from the truth), then the probability of an unsuccessful series of N lost bets in a row can be calculated by the formula: (1 - 1 / ratio) in degree N. For four consecutive losses ratio 1.10 obtain the probability of (1 - 1 / 1.10) to the power of 4 = 0.0000683 or curved, 1 time out of 14 000. Again, note the variance! This does not mean that you can safely "slip" 13 999 times, and "get" exactly 14 000th. No, exactly the same chance of such misfortune can happen to you as essentially later than 14 000th times, and immediately on the first try, but also more than once on some of the segments of 14 000 tests. And it does not depend on how much you believe in this rate. Another common misconception is that many players believe: after losing one, and even more than a few bets in a row, the probability of winning the next rate increase. And why use progressive betting strategies, such as the Dogon. Alas, it is not so. In fact, the probability of winning your bet does not depend on how much time you have lost before. The same after you throw a few "heads" in a row, the probability to throw in the next roll of the "tails" in a perfect coin does not change and remains the same 50%. It is also necessary to remember. Statistical significance As you probably already understand, it is impossible to make reliable conclusions about whether profitable bets on the race or not, after only 10 attempts. And even after the 100 still can not. Because of the dispersion of your real results at a distance can be very different from that shown in this short stretch, to the point that to be in the end, negative, despite the first 10 or 100 bets with profit. Number of bids you want to do before to evaluate the quality of your game is called statistically significant sample size. The minimum number of it depends on the used coefficients. The higher the coefficient - the greater the dispersion, the need to make more bets, to understand where they have zavedut. For roughly equally likely events (rates around 2) you need to do at least 500, preferably 1000 bets before the first serious conclusions. Wow? What do you think! Statistics such a thing. Now you should be clear that various kinds of "Kapper" (predictions sellers), showing as proof of their success short series of multiple bets, in fact, do not prove anything. MARGIN, or why sports betting, as opposed to the casino, you can earn Perfect, "a spherical bookmaker in a vacuum", makes a margin. Margin - is a small "supplement" to the probability that makes the loss ratio for the player, if this probability is known in advance and accurately. In the example of an ideal coin for the probability of 50% on the "eagle" and "tails" break-even point will correspond to the coefficients for 2 on that and the other. If we put 100 rubles, still on that "eagle" or "tails", in 50% of cases, we will win $ 100 * 2 = 200 rubles, and in 50% of cases - play for $ 100. Total 50% * 100 * 2 (our winnings) -50% * 100 (our losses) will give us zero - we will stay even. But again, what? That's right, the variance. This is true for a very large number of times (ideally - infinite), that professional players called "distance". That is, in the distance we will remain at their, and, for example, after 10 bets on these rolls on such factors (Repetition is the mother of learning!), Our results can vary in a very wide range, from a loss of 1,000 rubles to win the same in 1000. But you have to assess the profitability or unprofitability of its rate is at a distance, if you seriously and are going for a long time to make betting on sports, and do not expect to catch a successful band ( "positive dispersion of emissions"), take the money and never return to the rates in bookmakers. The sad truth is that a known equally probable events (eg, virtual games) you in any bookmaker will not see a factor of 2: he will always be lower, just on the size of the margin. That is about 1.97 in the most advanced bookmakers like Pinnacle, and up to 1.80, and even lower in the most greedy bookmakers. It is easy to find, putting the equiprobable events at a rate below 2, we get a loss in the distance. It unites the bookmakers with casino, where, for example, on the roulette there is always a sector of "zero", which plays the role of margins. After payment of even money bets at roulette (red / black, odd / ODD) also goes by a factor of 2, but because of the "zero" probability of actually slightly below 50%. Since the "paid" 36 numbers on the wheel, and "zero" - 37 th, this difference, "the casino margin" at roulette, is exactly equal to 1/37. At a distance it guarantees a profit for the casino, and for the players - a loss. This fact leads to one more popular among players myth: many people believe that because of the margin of bookmakers have a steady income at a distance, betting on sports, in principle, impossible. But there is one major difference bookmaker from the casino, which radically changes the situation. If casino games all the probabilities are known in advance, the real probabilities of the sports events (not to be confused with the virtual "horses" and other betting games disguised as machine guns), as you already know, is not known to anyone, including the bookmakers! Therefore it is quite real, furthermore, regularly occur a situation where bookmakers give higher ratios for two events whose real probability is around 50%. What (you already know how to find it) means profit on the distance to the player making such bets! And Margin here is of no importance. If one of the two equally likely events given above factor 2, the margin size affects only the magnitude of the coefficient on the opposite outcome. It will be the lower, the higher the margin of the bookmaker, but we have what difference, we're not going to bet on the opposite event, is not it ?! Another indication that the margin is not an obstacle for earnings on rates is the existence of "forks". But indirect evidence that betting analytics is not without sin when assessing the probabilities of events and exhibiting them coefficients, this line of motion when, at times, the favorite in the match with changes to just the opposite over time. Most often this is due to the fact that customers bookmaker too much put on one of the events. But foolish as to believe that excessive amounts of bets players alter the probability of this event! Of course not, in fact, that only means that analysts initially misjudged him. And in general, contrary to popular belief, the primary purpose of a bookmaker is not solution of the problem as close as possible to reality, to determine the probability of each event. Much more important for the bookmaker correctly predict the proportion of betting players that, regardless of the outcome of the match to get a uniform profit from all outcomes. Finally, if the margin is ensured bookmakers profits in the same way as it does for the casino, would we have heard about the mass cases of reduction of the limit rates or even completely block the accounts of successful players, as well as other tricks, especially for unscrupulous bookmakers to avoid paying the winnings ? How often do you cut interest rates limits the players at the casino? If only we are not talking about the obviously fraudulent activities, then never. But bookmakers repression against players thrive all the time, and is easier to call the bookmakers who do not repair any obstacles to those who have won, in fact, those currently in the entire global network of only two: Pinnacle and Sbobet. All other online bookmakers all the forces will try to show the door you as soon as you manage to start winning, and some bookmakers you can get a "black mark", even being in the red, just because your style of betting might seem employees of the office of potentially winning ! WHEN THE MARGIN has a significant impact Despite all the above, there are cases where the margin is still a significant barrier. And it is much-loved by the majority of casino players express. Let's see what happens with the expectation of our rates, if we take them to express. Suppose we put on equally probable events on the coefficient of 1.98 (the minimum margin on the market) and will collect five such rapid rates. Factor in this Express will equal 30.43. The actual probability of winning 3.125%. And what is the break-even rate for such a possibility? 1 / 0.03125 = 32! It would seem that for a single rate of break-even point we are only in the ratio of 0.02, and in five fingers express the difference has increased by more than half the unit! This shows that the influence of the margin in the expression is enhanced, in general, it is multiplied by the number of events to express. Estimating the probability of sporting events It was shown above that the secret to success in sports betting is not contrary to mathematics or probability theory and formulated quite simple at first glance: it is necessary to choose the rate at which the bookmaker factor incorrectly estimates the probability of the event, making it profitable for the player. In the example of equally probable events have to choose one of them, which is given to the above factor of 2. It is best with some margin (for example, from 2.10 and up) at the bookmaker, to take into account the effect of estimation error and reduce the potential damage from a local variance. But the difficulty is that the methods of objective assessment of the likelihood of sporting events does not exist. We can not take any objective (ie not dependent on someone else's opinion) data, such as statistics, enter them into some sort of program that on the basis of these data will give certainly true probability of an upcoming event, at least approximately. An important role in assessing the probability of a sporting event always plays a view assessing which forms the basis of own impressions about the game athletes, or based on any other premises. Many people confuse the probability of occurrence of an event in the future and its frequency in the matches already held.

SELLERS FORECASTS AND PROMOTION OF ACCOUNTS

INTRODUCTION If you type in a search engine the phrase "forecasts for sport", you will get the search results, as well as the content around the cells, countless hundreds of sites that promise mountains of gold in sports betting in exchange for a modest and often very, very immodest fee . Who are all these people who call themselves "Capper", "professional analysts" or even whole "think tanks or agencies"? Could it really possible to make profitable bets on other people's projections and grief do not know? But some suggest an even simpler way of dressing called "promotion accounts" Give us the password of your account at the bookmaker with a certain amount of your money on board, and we are guaranteed to multiply her by a certain percentage! Called yield, in comparison with which any "pyramid" nervously crying in a corner, as the guarantees provided screenshots to win the bid, a photo of a favorite in the "Lexus" and amid bursts of large banknotes, even scans of passports and telephone numbers - say, look we are so confident in themselves and are not going to deceive you, that do not hide anything - just trust us! What does all this really mean, and how to avoid becoming a victim of fraud and unscrupulous "analysts" about this we will talk in this article. I hope that all about match-fixing is already all know very well, so I will not even mention here about them. It focuses only on the toll forecasts for sports and those who offer you these available to buy from you. PART ONE. WHAT FIRST need to pay attention I think it should be understood that "Capper", offering to buy them express, Dogon and other mischief, do not pay even the slightest attention. Only Ordinaries, only conservative financial strategy - it is the very first condition for choosing Capper. And what are the criteria to evaluate them further? The fundamental rule is: good marques in the description of its results are an indicator "percentage of sales" or ROI (Return Of Investment - ROI), bad privateers and outright crooks use the term "cross-country", at best, pointing out certain average rate of its interest rates, and more all without it. Why ROI, and it's all about? In simple terms, the ROI indicates the average profit (or loss if negative ROI) delivered to each of the ruble (the dollar, euro or the Tug - does not matter) Bet Capper (without subscription fee). ROI of 10% means that every delivered ruble brings you an average of 10 cents of net profit. Of course, if you manage to make a bet on that factor that is specified in Kapper. "Permeability" refers to the percentage of winning bets. And unscrupulous Capper credited here also forecasts that won only half of the bet (this happens for Asian handicaps), ie actually at a rate of 2 times lower than was indicated. How can you find the real profitability forecasts for Capper voiced their terrain? In any way, this is the whole point! This figure is quite pointless to assess the profitability or unprofitability Capper. It is possible to achieve an attractive cross-country in a 80% coefficient to 1.2, which means in fact that you lose 4 cents from each ruble delivered! But the figure is beautiful, which are carried out by inexperienced players. But patency of 55% very few people are interested in, although if the coefficient for such terrain is 2, then in fact you will have a profit of 10 cents on each delivered ruble! Of course, in addition to the ROI, you need to also know the markets in which puts Capper. Actually, it should be seen from its history rates. If no Capper betting history, or he, for some reason does not want to show it to you, - with Capper do not have anything to do. This Capper, if it does sell a quality product, and does not want to cut the dough with suckers, do not have to hide anything. What is the ROI is considered normal? And it just depends on the markets. The more popular the market (sport championship), the bookmakers give the correct factors on it, the harder it is to find a profitable rate. Therefore, the most popular, "top" of any ROI markets above 0% - already a success. A small "specific" profit is offset by high limits taken bookmakers amounts. On the other hand, in exotic markets (called "smollmarkety"), for example, painting on an individual Total players in basketball, good players reach up to 20% ROI. The trouble is that you will never achieve their performance. Firstly, their bets can be put down just a single bookmakers, and as a rule, the office without a good reputation, especially if it domestic bookmakers. Secondly, these projections only the minimum amount possible to put (and that if you had not cut the limits), and the coefficients fall rapidly - after the rates of Capper and even before its delivery will come into your mailbox. This includes those who send forecasts for early lines, even the most respected firms navrode Pinnacle. Especially tennis: Here you are guaranteed to not be in time to catch not only Capper factor, but often even the size of the total or handicap, which "leave" during this time - naturally, at a disadvantage for you side. So that Capper can be in the black by the end of the match, and you - in the red. Thus, such Capper for subscribers, too useless. What we take? First of all, note that for some bookmakers gives Capper forecasts. If it is domestic (Marathon, Background, Betsiti) or are overseas, which also will not give you a long time without winning, not to cut your rate limits (Bwin, Bet365, Ladbrokes), hence, can immediately reduce its stated profitability 20-30 %, and then in half. If it is 10% ROI, then you really do not achieve more than 6-7%, which, in general, is also good. And first of all need to pay attention to Capper, which provide forecasts for Pinnacle line and Sbobet. This is almost the only bookmakers around the world that do not curtail betting limits, despite the fact that they're one of the highest online, and do not repair any other obstacles to successful players. There are problems with prostanovkoy forecasts will no longer remain the only problem - this fall factor, but this can not be avoided in any Capper, in one degree or another. But most importantly, that only projected in these bookmakers you will be able to approach the profits earned by himself Capper, although some "shortage" due to falling rates, especially if Capper many subscribers will still be. Among the most popular sports fall hardest odds for tennis and basketball (except, perhaps, the NBA only). About less popular, such as volleyball or curling, and say nothing. Capper specializing in these sports has long been not included in my portfolio. However, the most stable rates on football, if you do not take quite exotic championships. Although only at the leading leagues income will not receive. And just Capper, specializing in the football championship "second and third" tier, currently almost the only real opportunity to earn a paid subscriber forecasts, and about as much as himself Capper. For such ROI is considered excellent from 7% to 10%. And what about profits in the past month? As you know, it depends on the volume and ROI rates in the past month. For ROI of 10% and 20 rate per month for 3% of the bank's monthly income will be equal to 6% of the bank. This is an average, of course, figures for any given month can "throw" in a fairly wide range (the larger, the greater the rate coefficients), both a plus and minus. Not only 6% in the month, I want more? Over there, on that site, promise 150% per month? You should understand that there is a clear rule "the higher the income - the higher the risk" and the risks to earnings growth does not increase linearly, but exponentially, that is much steeper. And this brings us to the risk of losing the entire bankroll. In addition, the declared figures are sky-high monthly income, as well as unrealistic "terrain", which will be discussed below, often indicate a scam. High risks in betting on sports, we somehow can not be avoided, otherwise it makes no sense at all to do this, but you need to be able to find a reasonable balance between profit and risk dimensions. Of the purchase forecasts, this balance does not find any other way except as a competent choice of bet size. As a rule, Capper indicate in their mailing lists these dimensions as a percentage of your bankroll. Reasonable size of the bet depends on the rate, but in any case advised to put Capper for 10% of the bank above, it is an occasion guard. No matter how "true" did not look his forecasts. With rates of 20-30% of the bank really is possible to make 150% profit on a good month. The problem is that the next bad - not even a month, and the day - to leave you entirely without bank. If we put 2-3% of the bank, the most comfortable for me bet size for the coefficients in the range of 1.50: 3.00, and the profit per month for the example in the previous paragraph will be 15%. Still not enough? Go to the bank, so there will not be offered during the year. But with minimal risk. In general, summing up the above, the average profitability forecasts 10-15% per month for reasonable amounts rates - this is a very good indicator. PART TWO. recognizes SCAM About profit percentages talked. Now a little about the dealers "walkable". I like this one statement, unfortunately, I do not remember where I saw it, and from whom, "with walkable - to the proctologist." I have already written, why this option is nothing said. But something he still allows you to set. Surely you have often encountered such advertising texts. "Patency 80-90% !!!" coefficients to 1.7-1.8, and even 2.00. So, anyone who writes like that, you can immediately write to the scammers, or inexperienced newcomers. In fact, anyone, even a bad player, it may be a period of time when he really is such continuity, after 10 bids, for a week or even a month, if interest rates had little. Inexperienced players immediately got on a positive period, naively believe that it will last forever. But the real value only has permeability (okay too, just speak about it) on a statistically significant number of bets. As well as the ROI, and any other statistical measure. This is not 10 or 20, in good it 1000 bets. But at least 300 and preferably above 500. And the average ratio, the greater must be the history of forecasts to the picture painted by statistics achievements Capper was close to reality. And I assure you that such a long distance, no one close and there will be no 80-90% patency rates at about deuces! As I wrote, the best do 20% ROI on a very exotic markets. For this ratio is 1.8 67% patency. This is the maximum that can achieve statistically significant distance Capper, and that in such markets where its subscribers of this profit will get only crumbs. But even if there are bulk rates Capper statistics, not the fact that she had fair. In fact, 99% of sites selling projections fake publish statistics. Even if you are buying their forecasts, and statistics on the website coincides with what you get, there are cases corrections retroactively Statistics 3-4 months old, beyond which none of the subscriber is watching. Especially love to do it for some reason, popular among all purse "Blackie", "Secret", "delicate" and other ... soccerpicks and ... bettingtips (word instead of "..." to substitute as a fantasy, actually almost they are all made by the same small group of people, mostly citizens of "small but proud" of the CIS republics). The first sign of a fake - no freezing months. This may be, if the statistics do not include more than six months, but if all the plus-months for a year or more - is 99.99% fake (0.01% reserve on account of unreal genius betting that may exist). The second sign of a fake - a uniform distribution of losses among individual series of wins. If there is a series of wins, must be a series of losses - the laws of statistics, which can not be fooled. In general, any long uniformity in rates of statistics - a sign that it drew artificially, because they do not occur in nature, for example, even loss of heads and tails in a coin for a long time (at least several dozen shots). Real statistics must necessarily consist of alternating ups and downs, connected by short intervals of uniform behavior of the balance chart. Well, very simple to catch those who puts the stats for a year or two on the site, which is actually a couple of months old. You can check this service whois, by looking at the date of registration of the domain. Appearance Capper site can also tell a lot. Firstly, it should be the site on a paid hosting and a domain of its own - it is not even discussed. Secondly, the website design should be appropriate. It is clear that now for fraudsters all is not a problem, and the solid feel of the site should not be forced to relax, but still many activists believe that all this does not matter, and allow themselves to "go to market" with the sites, cobbled together from free templates free hostings. In normal Capper on the site in the first place should be clear and understandable statistics, broken down by month and year, with an indication of the volumes delivered, winning, interest income from the bank and ROI. In the history of bets each forecast must indicate the rate and size of the bet. No "screaming", rotating and flashing bucks, coins and pictures with inscriptions WIN !!! If you see on Capper Online colorful grubby long "puttees" with screenshots accounts (especially in offices like Betsiti, and especially the guest account), photos and videos of a loved one "in action", terms like "sure thing", "piece of iron", "concrete "," forecasts the VIP "- run away from him. PART THREE. monitoring Now I will tell you about the monitoring or tracking Capper. What it is? This is the site where Capper send their forecasts are the same as the subscribers, and where independent observers are their statistics. Thus, the statistical probability of forgery is excluded, unless Capper not bribe administrators tracking or one of Kapper is not admin and draws it to itself attractive Statistics (unfortunately, it happens sometimes). Of the foreign trust is the highest trekking VerifiedTipsters. From Russian-speaking unblemished reputation only Oddscompare. There are we Betonsuccess, but its creator, Probettor, a few years ago has been involved in falsifying statistics number of monitors had Capper (which has long disappeared into oblivion, so I will not mention their name), when he created his very first monitor in RuNet under called Procappers. Therefore, even if Betonsuccess anything like this is not done, the stain on the reputation of forces to be suspicious of all present and future projects Probettor'a. And much has been written about what factors are out there draw themselves Capper, not controlled by anyone, and sometimes even enter the wrong results. So, we found tracking, what's next? Selection criteria Capper that trekking that the personal sites, in principle, the same, I described them in the previous parts. VerifiedTipsters good by the fact that it is online, you can read real customer reviews on monitoryaschihsya Capper. Thus, it is possible to compile the most complete picture of the Capper. However, even the absolute statistical integrity Capper on trekking does not guarantee that we will get the same profit by subscribing to its forecasts. The reasons are many, and the main thing is that most Capper give their forecasts for early lines. Where even the most attractive factors, the odds and totals that have not caved in to the right side of the players with their bets. And it is likely that the distribution exit point for a long time already "gone". That is, we could get the same profit as in Kapper in the statistics, if received mail in the afternoon, would be able to go back into the past, in the early morning or the previous evening, and put on that line. The second reason - it forecasts the lines the bookmakers, who will not allow you to put any substantial amount, either immediately or soon after you have started winning, as I wrote in the first part, but it is useful to repeat. Agree, a little confused by + 50% from the bank in a month, if these predictions can not put more than $ 100, and only a couple of bookmakers, and the other bookmakers of such rates and does not. Alas, but in the end it turns out that even trekking with crystal honest reputation and statistics, confirmed by independent observers, to choose not particularly out of someone. PART FOUR. PRICE FORECASTS There's talk about prices. It is clear that the $ 50 - $ 100 or more at a forecast fall away immediately, even if you can afford that kind of money, and here's why. etc. But!

Unbeaten RATES AND STRATEGIES

Win-win bets: if it happens in a game against the bookmakers? Surely you have repeatedly stumbled on a proposal to buy "a win-win strategy of the game," or something like that. Is there really a strategy, allowing us to make a win-win betting on sports? Let's face it. To begin let me remind you how the bookmaker. The meaning of his work is to expose factors so that, no matter how you combined the amount stamped on all outcomes of a single event, the bookmaker always remained in profit. That is a win-win for themselves. But you can find a win-win bet (that is, the combination of both), analyzing the line several bookmakers. And finding a situation where one bookmaker overestimated factor in the outcome of the one and the other - on the contrary, you get a "plug" - it would seem, truly a win-win strategy against bookmakers. Unfortunately, such situations are rare, short-lived, and you are constantly at risk: as long as you put one outcome in the first office, the coefficient of the second bookmaker could change so that "fork" will be gone - "win rate" disappears, and even on the contrary, turn to you in losing. You either need to minimize their losses, it is still betting on the opposite outcome, according to new factors that no longer bring you profits, but only allow to get away with minimal losses. Either way and leave this one bet, hoping that she will win, and if successful, receive a much higher profit than in the capture of "fork". But in case of failure, suffering much more substantial losses than if you overlapped with the minimum "discount" miss a win-win combination of factors, forming the "fork". And "win-win situation" could become a very losing. Double-edged sword. And this is not to mention the fact that the bookmaker may cancel your win at such rate, arguing that "a technical error" in the line. At the same time another loser outcome will always be issued as necessary. So much for the "win rate"! You have not yet eliminated the hunt to catch the "fork"? Personally, I have - for a long time. There are, of course, an option that no one will cancel your winning bid on any pretext. This is if you make it to the betting exchange, for example, on Betfair. The trouble is that such exchanges can be counted on the fingers of one hand, and the "fork" between them is almost never occur. But they may occur within the same exchange, over time. That's just to successfully capitalize on this, you need to guess which of the outcomes over time factor will grow. Or fall, all the same thing - just to guess the direction. If you guess right, and this trend will be stable and long, ie, rate will only fall and fall (as you predicted) before the start of the match - that this is not just a win-win situation, but a real bonanza! This is based "trading", or in Russian - trade "bought" (set), I waited until the ratio will fall - and "sold", ie adopted on the same starting bet from other players. Having thus profit from the difference in rates, regardless of the result of the match. Winning Strategy? Of course! Just ... if know in advance, which will move rates. What if you "buy" rate based on the fact that her rate will fall, and he suddenly went into growth? "A win-win strategy" for your bet again turned into a lose-lose, and you again have to choose: to get away with minimal losses, "selling" claim to be a win-win bet on that factor, which is, until he grew even more and bring you even greater losses . Or take a chance and hope to win this bet already as a regular player, not a trader. The same as in the loss of "fork" - we have already discussed above. The strategy is the same behavior. And not a win-win. Still like to call win-win betting the "banker". This is when they believe that the "Real" well, can not lose at home some "Ponferradina" ... and "Barcelona" - "Ruby", well, right? The question is rhetorical. We all need to understand that any team can lose to anyone, the only question is the probability - how often it can occur. But this probability is not zero, unless a contractual match, and you - its direct organizer. And then, you know, even in such "win-win" are absurd coincidence, when the ball before the final whistle after a rebound stupid is not the gate of the team. So it turns out, is absolutely a win-win betting or strategies do not exist? It turns out so. But not quite. In fact, a win-win strategy for sports betting exists, and it is the only one. This is Value Betting. This strategy only mathematically guaranteed profit statistically significant distance (from 500 or more rates). And it must be understood that any single bet can lose. However, there is an obstacle: you need to be able to properly evaluate the probabilities of events, only Value Betting is really a win-win strategy for the end of a certain period of time for you. And here is how to learn to do this? This is the most difficult thing in this betting strategy. No universal method. Everyone should try to comprehend the science of its own, but what happens if he had along the way is really a win-win weapon against the bookmakers, - show only the distance and time.

Match-fixing, the most profitable way to make money on sports.

In recent years, the Internet, especially on social networks, there were hordes of a wide variety of "insiders" and "informants", offering to buy their match-fixing ( "dogovornyaki" or colloquially "dogs"), wholesale and retail, for 5 bucks Unit 500 and, in almost every league and sport. There also can be attributed to traders all sorts of "win-win strategy", "banker" and "pieces of iron" with "99% of cross-country" because we need to understand that a priori 99% probability of winning is, except that the football team of Spain against the team of what some islands Cook, but this factor is relevant for which no one will buy in the literal and figurative sense. And in these sentences of varying degrees of attractiveness factors, from 1.50 to infinity. Do such things happen? Is there any good in the world people are willing to get rich you win-rate fee of $ 5, $ 50, but even $ 500? Let's face it. PART ONE. ORGANIZERS What is the general match-fixing? This is when the opponents play a pre-ordained result (outcome or expense). The reasons may be different. First of all, if the outcome can suit both teams, for example, in the last round of the championship, if the draw between the competitors in the fight for survival will save both of them, and the team in good relations with each other - most likely, they will play a draw. They can not even agree on it specifically, just when the suiting all accounts shortly before the end of the game no longer take risks and quiet "dokatyvayutsya" before the final whistle. Further, among the middle peasants commands to extend the principle of interchange points, as they are often negotiated in advance, sometimes even before the start of the season: "We win at home, and for that you lose in the second round at your stadium." Or vice versa, the exchange away win as they have more of the premium, and the bookmaker can be put down for a decent rate. Often there are whole groups of commands (called "pool", a portmanteau of "pool" -. General fund association), which in the matches between a paint necessary distribution points, not to have problems in their struggle for survival. For example, in the Russian Football Premier League until recently this pool included certain commands the South of Russia and Siberia (the specific name of the clubs will not say to avoid trouble), which together supplied each other's needs glasses, "throwing" a way out of the Premier -League clubs are not included in the "pool" and had no opportunity to negotiate. Also part of the match shall be for the money for debt, or vice versa "in debt" with an eye to the future. The first thing is clear: you have paid us, we will lose, because we have these glasses are not important, as you need. The second looks something like this: we will help free the previous championship, when we already do not need, and you need the points, but for that you please give us the three points in this season. This scheme can even be layered like this: you give us this game, even if you need glasses, too, but for that we buy your opponent in the next round, so that he gave you victory. As one of the rare, but still used variants: three points (or more) give a discount on the amount of player transfers from one club to another. When these two clubs have met each other, the "buyer" gives the right amount of points, "seller". Finally, the "borrowed" it is possible to lose when we already do not need anything in this game, but in the future (in the second round, in the next season, in the FA Cup match) may be required, so, take the three points, but be prepared for us to return them when we need them. Exactly it became the champion of Russia is one of the club in recent years: "blankly" acted in the tournament that preceded his championship, in fact, he often deliberately handed over his rivals matches with an eye to return next season, in which, after collecting all the "debts" I was on the first line in the table. There are also more subtle forms of transformation of sports games in the theatrical performance with a pre-written script and the final. With the popularity of spread betting shops all cases where one of the teams most began to happen, or both at once, shall appear on any convenient rate and leaving the field, ensure its passage. Often this total is larger, or "any other score" (this item has many bookmakers in the betting line on the correct score after painted with all possible options from 0: 0 to 3: 3 inclusive). Either the "unexpected" victory for the notorious outsider factor of about 10 or even higher. The latter is most common in various qualifying matches involving teams who understand that will not come out of this group, and some "dwarf", for example, it happens once in a game of football against Andorra and Macedonia. Also in the qualifying rounds of the European cup, especially in Eastern European teams matches. Which is why even the UEFA European Football overturned the off Intertoto Cup, the second half of the name of which has become a shining symbol of what the participants of the tournament in the last years of its existence. However, suspicions of foul play there, even in the most prestigious football club competition - the Champions League, not to mention the "secondary" for the majority of the participating teams of Europe League. No less corrupt team and individual sport such as tennis. But because it is almost all the matches played on "Olympic system", where the very first defeat means departure from the tournament, the lack of motivation of the tournament is a very rare breeding ground for foul play. Only if the tennis player loses specially in some unnecessary for the tournament itself, because it is time to go to another, larger and more important. Therefore, the bulk of the scandals of match-fixing in tennis is somehow connected with the "odd" bets on these matches. There was even a precedent, when the largest betting exchange Betfair canceled all bets on the match Davydenko - Vassallo due to serious suspicions of unsporting nature of the game. Although, in contrast to the bookmaker, betting exchange is a profit regardless of the outcome, as it does not risk their own money, but merely collects a commission from the bets of players, exposing and accepting applications. Apparently, such a move was called parties attached scope of such fraud in tennis. In fact, high-profile news and disqualification for tennis bets, including on their own matches, with each passing year more and more often occur. Finally, the theme that somehow bashfully bypass even independent stavochnyh forums, but it's there, and from it can not escape. This match-fixing, which organize ... bookmakers. The most common - when it "suddenly" does not win a notorious favorite to win millions of ordinary customers which bookmakers have put tens of millions of dollars. Who would not say that the bookmaker does not matter who wins in this particular match, if it is properly balanced the volume of received bids for its coefficients, and in the games like "Osasuna" - "Barcelona" does not sbalansiruesh the fact that over 90% the entire money supply will inevitably stamped on the victory of "Barcelona" (unless it exposes the second part, and in advance we all know). Therefore, sometimes the "Barcelona" in such matches wins. Just do not think that all these sensations bookmakers paid for: in fact, in most cases, the notorious Grand does not win in a fair fight completely. Only occasionally, particularly in case of necessity, it is in this "help." Another option interference bookmakers in the match - it influenced his script at a certain stage, after the implementation of which is already beginning to play opponents honest. Especially a lot of these shenanigans began with the advent of the bookies betting during the match. This happens at every level, right up to the highest, so, for example, to say that in the key stages of the Champions League match-fixing can not be - the highest degree of naivety. How do you script the final 2005 between "Liverpool" and "Milan"? When the "Milan" led 3: 0, and all bookmakers still happily taking bets during the match on his victory, although in such cases, always in line are only totals and odds and outcomes removed. And suddenly - such a surprise! "Liverpool" managed to win three of these goals and reduce regulation time draw! Who could have foreseen it ?! But bookmakers somehow anticipated this development, willingly taking huge sums to win, "Milan" with the score 3: 0. Further, in extra time, the team seems to have played a winner in the open competition. Recent revelations may be a shock to most readers, but football (and all other popular sports) long and firmly corrupt, and to a large extent - bookmakers. In Asia there are whole betting syndicates (often underground), which play a very big players, so that the volume of bids to the same English Premier League in Asia orders exceed the amount of money that bookmakers include the English themselves. That is why more and more Asian bookmakers, such as 188Bet, the sponsor of English football clubs, often not even one, but several at once. They become the title sponsor, their names are written on T-shirts and advertising placed on billboards around the pitch - and this is not in order to attract customers from England, or at least Europe. Not at all! Matches the English league is very wide coverage on TV in Asia, and these promotions are aimed just at potential customers from the region - just because they are on average bookmaker bring ten times more money. And you thought, why during a match in England on billboards constantly turn some strange characters? Advertising is an inscription in English there is shown only a couple of seconds, but out of respect for the owners, somewhere after the advertising text in Vietnamese. These Asian syndicates are responsible for most of the "strange match" in Britain, as in many other championships, and even national teams matches. Moreover, the contractual matches will probably take place even in the final stage of the World Cup, as convincingly, with calculations and facts, including interviews involved in this people, tells Declan Hill in his sensational journalistic investigation published in the book "dogovornyak" ( "The Fix"). PART TWO. DEALERS So we looked at the main types of dishonest games in sport and came to the conclusion that they are actually present. Let us return to our sheep, that is, traders "dogovornyakami". How they can know in advance about the contractual scenarios in a particular game? If the "informants" say they just perekuschiki data from the second or third hand, the same question is valid with regard to their "suppliers". Option that is an employee of the aforementioned syndicate, dismissing at once: there is so much money swirling that no $ 50 or even $ 5000 for the sale of this information was not interested. Leakage of this information outside of the syndicate is highly unlikely, because there everyone knows what that means. And even more unlikely that the leak "leaked" in Russia, to such a good uncle-informant who is ready to share such valuable information for a modest fee. Also, rule out the possibility that a contractual match you according to his immediate organizer of the number of participating players, or the team's administration. All for the same reason: they are all well aware of what threatens such announcement. Yes, and the maximum that can be aware of such "intermediary" - it's about dogovornyakah with private participation. And they are unlikely to happen often. Vendors also offer a "dogs" every day, and almost all over the world. Where did such an amazing awareness ?! And why is the holder of such unique information is still trying to sell them to everyone you meet on the Internet for a few thousand rubles, and not affix itself to them an apartment and car and still lives in his own villa in the Caribbean ?! Ask yourself this question, and you will come to the only correct conclusion: all sellers of match-fixing on the Internet - swindlers. Even those read about in the newspapers. In 2010, on everyone's lips was "Dimitrovich" - someone who sold the alleged match-fixing in the Russian Premier League for a solid by our standards the amount of more than 30 000 rubles per game. He had a special success after an interview with him published in the newspaper "Sport-Express", but it really happened to guess the results of several games in a row. What is this, an exception to the rule vysheupomyatnogo? Of course not! An article in the newspaper - not a guarantee of truth, especially in our time. Article with a specific location of the site - even more so. With high probability it can be argued that it is paid up promotional material. Moreover, that article, in addition to repeatedly provide a link to the site, also announced pricing and payment methods. I am familiar with this mechanism, because he once worked in a similar promotion of the resource in the print media. Outwardly, it looks like a normal newspaper material, report or interview, but in which there was the address of my website, and without any subtitles like "for publicity". And, of course, I have to pay for it on standard advertising rates. The second and no less probable version: under "Dimitrovich" hidden employees of the newspaper itself. To pay for such self-promotion it will likely not have to, but otherwise the meaning of the preceding paragraph does not change. As he so accurately guess the outcome? Our Premier League is actually not that difficult to find matches, which can be issued for the treaty, even without owning "insider" information: the habit of some teams, "cut" glasses knows almost half of the country. Those who do not know enough vglyanut line offices, especially in the end of the championship, where the coefficient in the region of 1.20 on the winning team with the penultimate place in the match against the seemingly contender for a medal - is not the most exotic case. Anyway, but I finished this "informant" the same things everyone else like him: no guessing a series of matches after every miss cursing "Summing up his people out of the camp teams and disinformation," promising that the next "dog" will certainly pass how to ... and so on to complete his dethronement. So, in the best case, such "dealers happiness" passes for "dogovornyaki 'own forecasts, which may even be profitable, but in any case not win-win. The main feature - the presence of the double bets on outcomes (1X, X2) or odds. But most of all - this is a common "Guess." Often such "informants" offer you one free game, "to check". If it passes, the next "contractual" game sent for the money. It operates a simple divorce: for example, the seller scored 30 potential customers. To all of them he sends the same match, but the first ten subscribers provides for "dog" a home win, the other ten - a draw, and the last ten - winning guests. In the case of sports, in which there are no draws, like tennis or volleyball, it's even easier: the group is divided in half, and these halves are sent conflicting outcomes. If a match is suddenly canceled, the fraudster has 10 (in the second case - 20) to guarantee payment for the next "pseudo-dogovornyak", well, the rest of "losers" just stop communicating. The group also "lucky", having guessed right result and believing swindler, he begins to pay for the following matches. Next to them continues to operate the same scheme: dividing people into groups, each of them "benefactor" sends a different result. Thus the group is reduced more and more until there 1-2 "client". They have a rogue sends one outcome. He could guess him and some of the results in a row - this is not surprising: even if the regular "stick" in the line of bookmakers at random, you will have guessed series of several games in a row. And if you apply some analysis to select the best possible outcomes, the probability of obtaining such a series is even higher. The most interesting thing begins when the "contractual" game finally comes to an end not as stated "informant." Usually, especially after the "impressive" win-win series, it's not too shake the confidence of "clients", especially when the fraudster "convincing" explains why: "They were given the goal, but they could not get through the gate, and the judge was not aware, and finished the match without giving the latter a chance to score in the gate "; "Contracting with specific players, and the coach suddenly left them in stock, and the others were not aware of." Finally, the "something fell through at the last moment / bought out competitors / bookies", etc., depending on the wealth of fantasy. And an indispensable attribute - "the next match as compensation for the ladies for free." Thus, you can lose one more "sure thing", or even one, and customers will continue to pay for the guessed matches. And when stop - you can always disappear and appear with a different name, nickname, website, page "VKontakte", a legend and turn the whole process with a different group of "suckers" from the very first.

MATCH BETTING: watching football and earn more money

Analysts bookmakers improve their job every year, and found in line domatchevoy favorable factor is becoming more and more difficult. Fortunately, more and more opportunities for betting available during matches, especially in Asian bookmakers such as SBOBET, who seek to live in almost everything that is played at the moment, and even a little beyond that. Their goal is clear: these bookmakers living from trafficking, and the more events to in-line, involving putting money, the higher the speed will be offices and ultimately - their profits. The downside of this process - such bookmakers inevitably substituted "under attack" professional players, because it is impossible to properly expose the coefficients of absolutely everything, including the matches of the junior club teams up to 17 years and "prefabricated pumping stations." But in order to give adequate difficult odds on all events and even during the matches! The last we are going to do. For a start - a little technical part. Lines that bookmakers give to live, are directly dependent on the following things: domatchevoy line, match time, the current account and the presence of deletions in teams. It is clear how these components influence on the odds, totals and ratios during the matches, and as it should be understood that the line issued solely on the basis of these assumptions may not entirely reflect what is actually happening on the field. Sami kotirovschiki bookmakers at all desire can not personally keep track of the progress of all the games, even if the matches are shown on TV. Therefore, the most advanced bookmakers try to be at every game, they give betting live, your correspondent to the periodic phone reported the most important information about the game, such as "home team has a great advantage," or "in the game a lot of chances to score" . Often, however, this is still not enough to live in line was adequate to reality. Firstly, this information affects, as a rule, only at the current rates, but do odds and totals still change "mechanically", starting from their domatchevyh values. And, for example, if prior to the start of the match bookies give the total is "greater than 2", and in the first half, the team suddenly decided to play open football and not implemented ten chances to score, then break the size of Thoth will be put "on the machine" in half of his domatchevoy value, i.e. "Greater than 1". Except that the ratio may be somewhat lower than usual. And if this kind of events in the first half kotirovschikam BelTA. And secondly, on the podium with the phone sitting is not football experts as paying for it a bit. Usually it is simple inhabitants, students and pensioners, who had nothing to do like to go to football and do not mind a bit of money by supplying information to bookmakers. And thus, the information they provide is often fairly superficial and can not go to the benefit of the bookmakers. But we - quite the contrary. It is clear that we are not able to attend all of these games, or even more so to have their own, more qualified experts, but in our time to find the Internet broadcast many games, which give raise to live, is not too difficult. Optionally even watch all the football from start to finish. During the game there are usually three key points that may allow it to earn good money if you are good at this sport. The first such moment - is 30 minutes of the first half. Just turn into the broadcast on the 15th, and usually to the specified time is already possible to catch a certain tendency, if they were outlined in the game. For example, one of the teams has a significant advantage (and it is important that it was not a territorial advantage, or the advantage in terms of possession, but first and foremost advantage created dangerous moments), but in live-betting on the outcome of the first half, it gives a head start (0) (hereinafter, when it comes to handicap during the match, meaning a head start on the current difference in the long run, as is common in Asian bookmakers, for example, when the score was 2: 1 odds (0) to the first team means " usual "Asian handicap (-1), ie, if the difference does not change, we will get a return on such rate, if" our "increase the score - win if the opponent to even the score or win, you lose) with an attractive coefficient (1.80 and above), any and all the plus handicap. Well, for example, because this team before the match was quoted as an outsider. No need to be an expert in football special to identify such cases and use them profitably. The second point - this is the first 15 minutes of the second half, along with the impressions of the first half. It is important to see not changed whether the trends that emerged before the break? These trends may be the same distinct advantage of one of the teams scoring chances (if we put on it, if it is given with a handicap of zero to positive), the overall large number of attacking play and scoring chances (if we are eyeing the totals "more" better in time when the value of Thoth will be exactly one more than the current amount of goals; it usually happens to the 65 minutes, if the value of Thoth before the match was equal to "standard" for football, 2.5). The third moment begins with about 70 minutes of the match. This is one of the most profitable things, as it was in this period bookmakers due to the mechanical nature of issuing and odds ratios allow the greatest systemic error in the line! The most common is: one team is in the lead and playing defensively. The losing team has the ball, territorial advantage (and all of this information, the bookmaker receives from correspondent at the stadium), but almost does not threaten the opponent's goal (an important detail that is often missing correspondent!). A winning team is conducting dangerous counterattacks, which often end with dangerous moments. However, it is in line with Handicap (0), and even with a decent ratio, which sometimes reaches 3 !!! For example do not even need to go far: a week before writing this article, the author watched the second half of the second match of the German Bundesliga Aachen - Aue. By the 70th minute the score was 1: 2, the picture on the box exactly corresponded to that described in the previous paragraph, and in Aue (0) gave 2.88 already! Of course, I could not refuse such a gift. The final score of the match - 1: 5. And this happens on a regular basis. The fourth point - the automatic increase in the coefficient for the team, get a red card. However, football - this is not hockey, and a numerical minority of the teams do not always affect the course of the match uniquely. Teams that have lost due to the removal of one player is often not simply keep the current account, but also achieve a positive result. The match Palermo - Cesena, again, not so long ago, Cesena recouped in the last minute with the score 0: 2, having at least two players! You can guess what factors were already live that Cesena simply keep the score 0: 2, not to mention something more! Note that in this case, of course, and in Palermo there were dangerous moments on the counter, ie, in the end of the match, in addition to the odds at Cesena, a distinct advantage over the line was in the interest rate on the total "more." Such "extreme" cases all, of course, are rare, but quite common situation where the team (while playing at full strength) in Live odds are zero with equal coefficients. You receive a red card, and the coefficient on, get her team grows automatically, for example, from 1.95 to 2.45. But we can see that the game of removing completely changed: the team how to create equal chances to score, and continue to do so, and it is obvious that such an equal game should be placed just on the team, you give odds (0) of 2.45 . It's just a very profitable at a distance. The most profitable use of such a situation, provided that I call "the principle of unrealized potential." In a nutshell, this means that if we put in the handicap team has a clear advantage on the scoring chances, it is best to this team at the moment rates have not led to credit (except very very obviously profitable cases, as in the example above with Aue) . And if we put on the total "more" with an abundance of scoring chances, it is best to at this time in the match was scored fewer goals as possible (ideally - none). That is, one must strive to catch an event that clearly "matures", but not yet implemented. And, of course, ratios. All of the above applies to more or less large coefficients of about 2.00, the higher - the more attractive and more profitable to run. In the general case, we estimate the probability, and if the corresponding coefficient is significantly overvalued relative to our estimate - we put this bet. A simple example: if one of the teams has a significant advantage in scoring chances, but it gives a head start (0), then the coefficients of 1.90 are already uniquely beneficial to bet. The more pronounced is the benefit of the lower rate for us. But to a certain limit. For me, this limit is equal to 1.70: lower rates, I do not play. In conclusion, I want to note that the points described above - it is not far from the "banker". These rates will inevitably sometimes lose, simply because football does not always obey the logic, and the team, which had a 15 per game scoring chances, can once and play the team that created only one opportunity to score, but to implement it. But, nevertheless, it is the expectation on the plus-rate, and in the long term, they will inevitably profit. Therefore, placing a bet, do not need to inspect the match and "rooting" for ensuring that it is passed. It is better to turn one of the concurrent broadcasts and try to find something there.

Football Betting: How to succeed

Foreword Despite the fact that recommendations are referred to herein bets only on football, many common points rates valid for a whole, regardless of the type of sport. Therefore, even if you specialize in football, you can still find in the text something useful for themselves. Perhaps, and are interested in betting on the sport. But for those who are already interested in betting on football, this material should be particularly useful. I tried to collect and summarize here the main factors that should be paid attention to in the selection of bets on the sport, as well as the basic mistakes that are made in the analysis of these factors. Everything said below - not lengthy discourse theorist, but the result of many years of experience practicing a player has reached in the meantime some success. Therefore, even if you feel that is written here is too much to spend their time - try to still read to the end, unless of course you really want to succeed in the rates. Note: number of players in the text refers to those who play on the betting rather than players (who are called to avoid confusion, the only way). 1. LEVEL OF COMPETENCE Football - definitely the number one sport in the world. In the world of betting certainly (well, except that with the exception of North America, but they all do not like people). Just look at the paintings given by the offices for different kinds of sports, and football here would be out of competition. Bookmakers are tripping over themselves to give to the most popular matches as much as possible betting options on anything - until "the coach whether removed from the bench" or "whether a match is interrupted because of the riots in the stands." And these efforts offices - not their personal whim: demand creates supply, including here. And, perhaps, in any other sport is not there as "experts" among the inhabitants, ready to give advice to the athletes and coaches, almost believing that better themselves, no one, including most of these athletes and coaches, not versed in this game . Not surprisingly, many of these people, even not being a big fan of gambling (although it is possible to find many sports enthusiasts neazartnyh ?!), but when he heard about the bet, surely decide to take part in them, thinking to himself: "Well, I do something I thoroughly I know all this football kitchen, why not cut down on this money? " Familiar, is not it? Especially if you - a fan of the club, visit its matches at the stadium, or at least, do not miss the audio broadcast on TV (if a team-grand), you know all about the players and the administrative and coaching staff up to that had for breakfast today's leading striker, or with whom slept the day before the goalkeeper (who - obviously meant the girl, not someone from the team-mates, though .... however, the goalkeeper of orientation you also need to be aware - it's your favorite team)! whose birthday is celebrated as a team after a match in a steep nightclub city night ... etc, etc. In short, your favorite club life for you there are no mysteries and secrets, and you decide that it will help you to enrich themselves at the bookmaker. And this - one of the major errors. The most important, perhaps - to put it in general having a vague idea of ​​what you put, but that any sensible person should be clear about it. But the fact that even a great deal in football as a game and have all possible information about a club in terms of its fan is not enough to be successful in betting on the sport (and the command) - obviously few, if any one thinks about it, especially at first. But nevertheless, it is! The most comprehensive knowledge of game theory, sufficient, for example, to write their own research on the topic "The game on the defensive with Liberia and the line: a comparative analysis", when playing the rates are unlikely to bring any benefit. If only it were that simple, then the most prosperous players would be the people of football with enough experience - coaches, teachers, football specialties sports high schools, famous football reporters (though the qualification of most of them is much lower than it appears to be still, and among them there the real experts, especially if they are former players or coaches). But we see that this is not happening. Even if you do not notice - Open any sports newspaper and find the heading "expert forecasts". At least in the Premier League this column appears in many of our publications. As a rule, every tour there predictions gives a new man, and the more respectable publication, the big "stars" of football in this involved. Try to keep statistics of these forecasts, not just how many guessed, and how much is not (as a rule, forecasts there are on the score, but we are interested in the outcome - who will win or play a draw), namely in terms of interest rates - that is, take the coefficients in your favorite bookmaker, apply them to the forecasts of experts, by giving each rate by 1 conventional unit (can be from 100 to count exceptions convenience of fractional parts of it), and strike a balance. With enough of these rates will draw more or less true picture that is guaranteed to surprise you! And the surprise is unpleasant. The same applies to fans of different teams, especially famous clubs or teams. In a fan of any minor league club living in the same place based favorite club may even be some advantage in terms of awareness as compared to other players (for some reason - we learn later). However, there is still added a negative factor for the rates as patriotism, or the emotions of fans. Excessive bogotvorenie their idols, or on the contrary, hatred of him in moments of failure, prevents objectively assess the chances of their favorite club. Few can "disconnect" from the fan thoughts and look impartially. Especially if some match your idols need only a victory: convince yourself that "we are sure to tear them !!!" good for the fan, be sure to football (mental attitude plays an important role in the sport), but it is totally unacceptable for a player to betting. If all the teams who need a victory, certainly it was mined, even in matches with unmotivated rivals football as such would not have been, especially in the final rounds of the championship. Even in the Italian championship, where usually those who already do not have anything at the end of the season, obediently give points to those who should be the exception, not so rare. So, summing up the above, even if you are thoroughly versed in the game of football, collecting the crumbs of information about your favorite club, regularly watch live matches - success rates you are far from guaranteed. Moreover, you have a slightly better chance than the average visitor bookmaker with its average statistical knowledge. And it must be understood before you rush to the booth with the line at the ready. Why is this happening? Firstly, the bookies - are professionals. They also collect all available information, follow the latest news, and take into account all these factors while setting rates. Take as a postulate: "What I know people on the other side of the window is already laid to the line," and you realize that, no matter how eminent expert you are, all your knowledge do not have any advantages over the line rate. Moreover, because of the margin you originally are not even on an equal footing with the bookmaker! In fact, not all information is taken into account by the bookmaker in line, and then we will see, but for now it will be useful to consider the case. Underestimating their strength, knowledge and skills will be more appropriate here than overestimation. Second - most of what you "know" or what is "confident", is actually implemented in your brain is such a powerful factor in public opinion. People tend to herd mentality and worship of the majority opinion. Very few are able to resist this their opinion and not to doubt the latter. Social stereotypes that often have very little to do with reality, zapolonyayut our lives are for her leadership, and it acts as a rate clearly nowhere. The popular argument "Real will win, because it is Real!" - The most striking illustration of the fact. At the same time that even Real Madrid now and then loses, everyone knows, but this fact does not diminish their confidence in this particular case. Other articles on this site show that public opinion of the players for a bookmaker when placing their coefficients is even more important than reality. Therefore, it is already incorporated in the line. So what we get for the long-term game, if we focus on the public knowledge and opinion in the choice of rates? In the most common case "would get" at the margin. At worst - we get an even more significant loss, since another property - an elementary human greed - compels us to collect "our" (actually - mostly public) opinion express, and then upset that did not play again only one Event ... often - something which was most sure. 2. Briefly The following errors are those who bet on football, make that pay too much attention to statistics. History of personal meetings until 1889, the statistics of the matches at home and away, the history of games each team during all of the year on the day of this match ... These data can even find some statistical regularities (indeed, is not playing football 500 years, the statistical significance of these laws is low), and it is quite possible that the match will end in full compliance with the found regularity, but that's what it means? Hardly anyone, even fans of Statistics rates believes the players out on the field and play, looking at these figures. "Easy" or "inconvenient" opponent - no idea from the world of betting, but just because of such statistics - maybe somehow affect the participants of the match, but rather before and after the match, when they are interviewed. It is unlikely that in the field the players think about the team for which they currently stand, are not won in his today's opponent in 1972, and even more so this is unlikely to impose on them an additional psychological burden. It is more likely that they will weigh the current prolonged lose-lose or goalless series. Still, the result of each individual of the match - a random variable independent of the statistics of previous meetings. If all the matches were played by the same formulations in identical conditions, while from its results still could bring something useful. And so - all the series sooner or later interrupted, and any patterns found in the statistics may stop working at any time and for all. And finally, if in betting on football a major role to play statistics, the best players would be encyclopedic, korpeyuschie over directories, and know by heart all the details, to the extent to which minute was scored the winning goal in nothing decisive outsiders match 5th league championship in Honduras in 1965. But this does not mean that the statistics are quite useless. First, very often, when there is no other information, bookmakers exhibit their coefficients based on the statistics, so, having some important news, inaccessible to the majority, we can see the advantage. In general, in any case affect the statistics exhibiting coefficients. Here's why you can not take it as a basis for selecting the rates - it has also taken into account in the coefficients. Secondly, the statistics team last matches much to tell about it. However, without knowing the reasons for these results, overly rely on it still can not - maybe drop the team was not a recession, only the players, "poured" the coach, and once it was removed, they again began to play at full strength. Something curious about the team's style can tell and statistics home and away meetings this season, for example, if the away team is playing better than at their stadium, especially if she has a little home performance, it is obvious that this team problems in the game " number one ", and simulated as favorite tactics - from defense to counterattack. However, in this case it is better to receive confirmation of these conjectures: perhaps just a coincidence that the house she played exclusively with the leaders, and on the road - with outsiders. Even when using such statistics it is necessary to monitor the composition of the team, if it changed half the players and coach dozayavok, the results of previous rounds are useless to us a set of numbers. Fortunately, the Internet is now possible to find almost everything, even the sites of amateur clubs. 3. FACTORS One of the few factors, which on the contrary does not give due importance - is the size of the coefficients. Generally, the players can be divided into three camps. The first - the ones who choose the most likely with their point of view the outcome, regardless of the factors. Second - those who are focused primarily on the ratio, and if it is sufficiently profitable, the rate will be made, even if they do not really believe in the success. Finally, the third camp - those whose rates are not amenable to logical explanation, but about them we will not talk. Which of the first two approaches is better - the dispute rather metaphysical: if you constantly put on the coefficients expressing the advantage over the line, the gain at the long game, we guaranteed mathematically (unless of course it is the advantage over the line is determined by the right), fans of the first approach abut its insight and knowledge that helps them choose from a winning bet line. However, the main disadvantage of the latter consists precisely in the fact that they often do not pay attention to the factors, not even in terms of a comparison with the expected probability of the event, but in terms of optimizing their offices, ie find the highest ratio among the selected outcome of all available offices. That is, themselves deprived of income - maybe more, and perhaps even as a fact! One of the latter-day Capper I even read in the description: "If I see a good bet, then I give it immediately, rather than try to discover as much as 0 horseradish tenths of profit." We immediately see that man plays on a dime, if ever played. Because even an extra one-tenth in the ratio gives an increase in benefit 10% - at rates of 5 rubles a difference, perhaps slight, but the contribution of hundreds of dollars - quite palpable. And with the long game, where the struggle is for every tenth of a no ratio - percentage of turnover, such a difference could translate common minus into a plus, if the "pick 0 whole horseradish tenths," and, accordingly, on the contrary - to transform the potential profit in a real loss if this not to attend. The conclusion here is this: no matter what principles you are playing, but if you are looking for the maximum rate on your bet - you steal in their profits. For those for whom factors play an important role, just to find the maximum rate on your bet enough. It is also necessary that the probability corresponding to this ratio was below estimates estimated probability event. This principle is called the Value Betting. But it is not all that easy. If you notice a large discrepancy rate for this probability, not in a hurry to rush to put, think: if all the factors you take into account when determining the assessment? Conversely, if the bookmaker some factors overestimated, probably intentionally, to attract players to overestimate the same factors that put on what he needs? Particularly noticeable on factors affect such factors as motivation. Often in the final rounds of the championship for the team occupying the last place against the leader are totally ridiculous rates, because the leader had already secured first place, as the underdog, fighting for survival, desperately need points. And here it is necessary to carefully weigh all the "pros" and "cons": it has relaxed the leader of the players to give up without a fight match opponent, and whether strong enough outsider to beat the leader, even if the players last the entire match will go on foot? As mentioned above, even unilateral motivation is no guarantee that whatsoever. If, however, a logical explanation for this imbalance is not, it should be even more alert. The bookmaker may know about some backstage moments or may simply provoke players for no reason at all - it will be explained in the next chapter. 4. TRAFFIC LINES The following is a factor which often exaggerate the importance of - motion (rise and fall) of the coefficients in the lines leading bookmakers. Since fashion watch them appeared relatively recently, most players still unfamiliar with it, so the topic might be of interest only to "advanced". But it is possible that tomorrow one of you from their friends know about the next "system" of the game based on this, so this extra information to anyone not.