Football Betting: How to succeed

Foreword Despite the fact that recommendations are referred to herein bets only on football, many common points rates valid for a whole, regardless of the type of sport. Therefore, even if you specialize in football, you can still find in the text something useful for themselves. Perhaps, and are interested in betting on the sport. But for those who are already interested in betting on football, this material should be particularly useful. I tried to collect and summarize here the main factors that should be paid attention to in the selection of bets on the sport, as well as the basic mistakes that are made in the analysis of these factors. Everything said below - not lengthy discourse theorist, but the result of many years of experience practicing a player has reached in the meantime some success. Therefore, even if you feel that is written here is too much to spend their time - try to still read to the end, unless of course you really want to succeed in the rates. Note: number of players in the text refers to those who play on the betting rather than players (who are called to avoid confusion, the only way). 1. LEVEL OF COMPETENCE Football - definitely the number one sport in the world. In the world of betting certainly (well, except that with the exception of North America, but they all do not like people). Just look at the paintings given by the offices for different kinds of sports, and football here would be out of competition. Bookmakers are tripping over themselves to give to the most popular matches as much as possible betting options on anything - until "the coach whether removed from the bench" or "whether a match is interrupted because of the riots in the stands." And these efforts offices - not their personal whim: demand creates supply, including here. And, perhaps, in any other sport is not there as "experts" among the inhabitants, ready to give advice to the athletes and coaches, almost believing that better themselves, no one, including most of these athletes and coaches, not versed in this game . Not surprisingly, many of these people, even not being a big fan of gambling (although it is possible to find many sports enthusiasts neazartnyh ?!), but when he heard about the bet, surely decide to take part in them, thinking to himself: "Well, I do something I thoroughly I know all this football kitchen, why not cut down on this money? " Familiar, is not it? Especially if you - a fan of the club, visit its matches at the stadium, or at least, do not miss the audio broadcast on TV (if a team-grand), you know all about the players and the administrative and coaching staff up to that had for breakfast today's leading striker, or with whom slept the day before the goalkeeper (who - obviously meant the girl, not someone from the team-mates, though .... however, the goalkeeper of orientation you also need to be aware - it's your favorite team)! whose birthday is celebrated as a team after a match in a steep nightclub city night ... etc, etc. In short, your favorite club life for you there are no mysteries and secrets, and you decide that it will help you to enrich themselves at the bookmaker. And this - one of the major errors. The most important, perhaps - to put it in general having a vague idea of ​​what you put, but that any sensible person should be clear about it. But the fact that even a great deal in football as a game and have all possible information about a club in terms of its fan is not enough to be successful in betting on the sport (and the command) - obviously few, if any one thinks about it, especially at first. But nevertheless, it is! The most comprehensive knowledge of game theory, sufficient, for example, to write their own research on the topic "The game on the defensive with Liberia and the line: a comparative analysis", when playing the rates are unlikely to bring any benefit. If only it were that simple, then the most prosperous players would be the people of football with enough experience - coaches, teachers, football specialties sports high schools, famous football reporters (though the qualification of most of them is much lower than it appears to be still, and among them there the real experts, especially if they are former players or coaches). But we see that this is not happening. Even if you do not notice - Open any sports newspaper and find the heading "expert forecasts". At least in the Premier League this column appears in many of our publications. As a rule, every tour there predictions gives a new man, and the more respectable publication, the big "stars" of football in this involved. Try to keep statistics of these forecasts, not just how many guessed, and how much is not (as a rule, forecasts there are on the score, but we are interested in the outcome - who will win or play a draw), namely in terms of interest rates - that is, take the coefficients in your favorite bookmaker, apply them to the forecasts of experts, by giving each rate by 1 conventional unit (can be from 100 to count exceptions convenience of fractional parts of it), and strike a balance. With enough of these rates will draw more or less true picture that is guaranteed to surprise you! And the surprise is unpleasant. The same applies to fans of different teams, especially famous clubs or teams. In a fan of any minor league club living in the same place based favorite club may even be some advantage in terms of awareness as compared to other players (for some reason - we learn later). However, there is still added a negative factor for the rates as patriotism, or the emotions of fans. Excessive bogotvorenie their idols, or on the contrary, hatred of him in moments of failure, prevents objectively assess the chances of their favorite club. Few can "disconnect" from the fan thoughts and look impartially. Especially if some match your idols need only a victory: convince yourself that "we are sure to tear them !!!" good for the fan, be sure to football (mental attitude plays an important role in the sport), but it is totally unacceptable for a player to betting. If all the teams who need a victory, certainly it was mined, even in matches with unmotivated rivals football as such would not have been, especially in the final rounds of the championship. Even in the Italian championship, where usually those who already do not have anything at the end of the season, obediently give points to those who should be the exception, not so rare. So, summing up the above, even if you are thoroughly versed in the game of football, collecting the crumbs of information about your favorite club, regularly watch live matches - success rates you are far from guaranteed. Moreover, you have a slightly better chance than the average visitor bookmaker with its average statistical knowledge. And it must be understood before you rush to the booth with the line at the ready. Why is this happening? Firstly, the bookies - are professionals. They also collect all available information, follow the latest news, and take into account all these factors while setting rates. Take as a postulate: "What I know people on the other side of the window is already laid to the line," and you realize that, no matter how eminent expert you are, all your knowledge do not have any advantages over the line rate. Moreover, because of the margin you originally are not even on an equal footing with the bookmaker! In fact, not all information is taken into account by the bookmaker in line, and then we will see, but for now it will be useful to consider the case. Underestimating their strength, knowledge and skills will be more appropriate here than overestimation. Second - most of what you "know" or what is "confident", is actually implemented in your brain is such a powerful factor in public opinion. People tend to herd mentality and worship of the majority opinion. Very few are able to resist this their opinion and not to doubt the latter. Social stereotypes that often have very little to do with reality, zapolonyayut our lives are for her leadership, and it acts as a rate clearly nowhere. The popular argument "Real will win, because it is Real!" - The most striking illustration of the fact. At the same time that even Real Madrid now and then loses, everyone knows, but this fact does not diminish their confidence in this particular case. Other articles on this site show that public opinion of the players for a bookmaker when placing their coefficients is even more important than reality. Therefore, it is already incorporated in the line. So what we get for the long-term game, if we focus on the public knowledge and opinion in the choice of rates? In the most common case "would get" at the margin. At worst - we get an even more significant loss, since another property - an elementary human greed - compels us to collect "our" (actually - mostly public) opinion express, and then upset that did not play again only one Event ... often - something which was most sure. 2. Briefly The following errors are those who bet on football, make that pay too much attention to statistics. History of personal meetings until 1889, the statistics of the matches at home and away, the history of games each team during all of the year on the day of this match ... These data can even find some statistical regularities (indeed, is not playing football 500 years, the statistical significance of these laws is low), and it is quite possible that the match will end in full compliance with the found regularity, but that's what it means? Hardly anyone, even fans of Statistics rates believes the players out on the field and play, looking at these figures. "Easy" or "inconvenient" opponent - no idea from the world of betting, but just because of such statistics - maybe somehow affect the participants of the match, but rather before and after the match, when they are interviewed. It is unlikely that in the field the players think about the team for which they currently stand, are not won in his today's opponent in 1972, and even more so this is unlikely to impose on them an additional psychological burden. It is more likely that they will weigh the current prolonged lose-lose or goalless series. Still, the result of each individual of the match - a random variable independent of the statistics of previous meetings. If all the matches were played by the same formulations in identical conditions, while from its results still could bring something useful. And so - all the series sooner or later interrupted, and any patterns found in the statistics may stop working at any time and for all. And finally, if in betting on football a major role to play statistics, the best players would be encyclopedic, korpeyuschie over directories, and know by heart all the details, to the extent to which minute was scored the winning goal in nothing decisive outsiders match 5th league championship in Honduras in 1965. But this does not mean that the statistics are quite useless. First, very often, when there is no other information, bookmakers exhibit their coefficients based on the statistics, so, having some important news, inaccessible to the majority, we can see the advantage. In general, in any case affect the statistics exhibiting coefficients. Here's why you can not take it as a basis for selecting the rates - it has also taken into account in the coefficients. Secondly, the statistics team last matches much to tell about it. However, without knowing the reasons for these results, overly rely on it still can not - maybe drop the team was not a recession, only the players, "poured" the coach, and once it was removed, they again began to play at full strength. Something curious about the team's style can tell and statistics home and away meetings this season, for example, if the away team is playing better than at their stadium, especially if she has a little home performance, it is obvious that this team problems in the game " number one ", and simulated as favorite tactics - from defense to counterattack. However, in this case it is better to receive confirmation of these conjectures: perhaps just a coincidence that the house she played exclusively with the leaders, and on the road - with outsiders. Even when using such statistics it is necessary to monitor the composition of the team, if it changed half the players and coach dozayavok, the results of previous rounds are useless to us a set of numbers. Fortunately, the Internet is now possible to find almost everything, even the sites of amateur clubs. 3. FACTORS One of the few factors, which on the contrary does not give due importance - is the size of the coefficients. Generally, the players can be divided into three camps. The first - the ones who choose the most likely with their point of view the outcome, regardless of the factors. Second - those who are focused primarily on the ratio, and if it is sufficiently profitable, the rate will be made, even if they do not really believe in the success. Finally, the third camp - those whose rates are not amenable to logical explanation, but about them we will not talk. Which of the first two approaches is better - the dispute rather metaphysical: if you constantly put on the coefficients expressing the advantage over the line, the gain at the long game, we guaranteed mathematically (unless of course it is the advantage over the line is determined by the right), fans of the first approach abut its insight and knowledge that helps them choose from a winning bet line. However, the main disadvantage of the latter consists precisely in the fact that they often do not pay attention to the factors, not even in terms of a comparison with the expected probability of the event, but in terms of optimizing their offices, ie find the highest ratio among the selected outcome of all available offices. That is, themselves deprived of income - maybe more, and perhaps even as a fact! One of the latter-day Capper I even read in the description: "If I see a good bet, then I give it immediately, rather than try to discover as much as 0 horseradish tenths of profit." We immediately see that man plays on a dime, if ever played. Because even an extra one-tenth in the ratio gives an increase in benefit 10% - at rates of 5 rubles a difference, perhaps slight, but the contribution of hundreds of dollars - quite palpable. And with the long game, where the struggle is for every tenth of a no ratio - percentage of turnover, such a difference could translate common minus into a plus, if the "pick 0 whole horseradish tenths," and, accordingly, on the contrary - to transform the potential profit in a real loss if this not to attend. The conclusion here is this: no matter what principles you are playing, but if you are looking for the maximum rate on your bet - you steal in their profits. For those for whom factors play an important role, just to find the maximum rate on your bet enough. It is also necessary that the probability corresponding to this ratio was below estimates estimated probability event. This principle is called the Value Betting. But it is not all that easy. If you notice a large discrepancy rate for this probability, not in a hurry to rush to put, think: if all the factors you take into account when determining the assessment? Conversely, if the bookmaker some factors overestimated, probably intentionally, to attract players to overestimate the same factors that put on what he needs? Particularly noticeable on factors affect such factors as motivation. Often in the final rounds of the championship for the team occupying the last place against the leader are totally ridiculous rates, because the leader had already secured first place, as the underdog, fighting for survival, desperately need points. And here it is necessary to carefully weigh all the "pros" and "cons": it has relaxed the leader of the players to give up without a fight match opponent, and whether strong enough outsider to beat the leader, even if the players last the entire match will go on foot? As mentioned above, even unilateral motivation is no guarantee that whatsoever. If, however, a logical explanation for this imbalance is not, it should be even more alert. The bookmaker may know about some backstage moments or may simply provoke players for no reason at all - it will be explained in the next chapter. 4. TRAFFIC LINES The following is a factor which often exaggerate the importance of - motion (rise and fall) of the coefficients in the lines leading bookmakers. Since fashion watch them appeared relatively recently, most players still unfamiliar with it, so the topic might be of interest only to "advanced". But it is possible that tomorrow one of you from their friends know about the next "system" of the game based on this, so this extra information to anyone not.