Profitable Strategy Kelly, only to win the game.

With Kelly strategy you can always determine the size of the bet on a single sporting event. Kelly Strategy is closely linked to ValueBet, it is its continuation. To start using the Kelly strategy in practice, you need to determine the size of your bankroll. Bankroll Bankroll - this is money on the game in bookmakers that are currently on your "game account". Initially, it should allocate a bankroll that is not a pity to lose, and that is not a blow to your budget. Strict adherence to the rules of bankroll is a prerequisite for the formation of any successful player. Besides observing the rules of bankroll you and at any time have control of your money, you do not lose more money than they themselves contributed to the game. So, to determine the size of your bankroll, and the object of the first rate move to the calculation of the size of bets for this sporting event: Rate (%) = [(* Vash_prognoz Odds - 1) / (Odds - 1)] * PPK Rate (%) - the bet that you want to deliver (as a percentage of your bank) Odds - ratio at the bookmaker Vash_prognoz - What is your forecast for the victory in this game as a percentage (interval from 0 to 1) PPK - ponizhayuschee- multiplying factor (0 to 1). Select players on their own, depending on the style of play. The closer the AUC value to 0, the more conservative player (do not get big wins, but also reduces the probability of bankruptcy to a minimum), and vice versa, the closer the AUC to 1, the more aggressive player, which can lead to hasty loss bankroll. AUC ratio selected player for a long time, and the change in the individual game is not highly desirable. Most players use the Kelly strategy in your game, use the AUC in the range of 0.15 - 0.35 Consider the following example: Your bankroll: $ 500 AUC: 0.25 Game: Spartak-Dynamo overall total more than 2.5 Factor bookmaker on selected outcome: 1.95 Your forecast: 60%, ie 0.60 Substitute into the formula: Rate (%) = [(1.95 * 0.60 - 1) / (1,95-1)] * 0.25 Rate (%) = [(0.17) / (0.95)] * 0.25 = 0.045 = 4.5% 4.5% of your bankroll ($ 500) is $ 22.5. So you bet on total more than 2.5, the size of $ 22.5 Remarks: If you win your bankroll will increase to $ 521.37, and calculating the size of the next bet you are coming from a new size bankroll: $ 521.37 If you have substituted all the values ​​in the formula, and the result was minus sign - it means from this rate should be abandoned, because it unprofitable for long-term game.