Value Bet - is a strategy game in bookmakers, which does not give you an idea of the action in the long run or how much income you will have in the future, however, this system rates appreciates your chances in a single game, and even more: betting system ValueBet she tells you whether to do this or that bet.
How does this happen? Everything is simple: let's have a game Federer - Nadal and Federer to win the bookmakers give us a ratio = 1.45. Now we analyze this game (each has its own methods of analysis - is taken into account the shape of players, tennis coverage, experience of personal meetings and many, many more), after analysis, we have determined that the odds of winning were distributed 70% to win Federer and 30% to win Nadal. Now let's define whether to bet on the coefficient of 1.45, provided that our chances of winning are 70%.
The criterion determining ValueBet:
Conv. Bookmaker * Rating> 1
In our example: * 1.45 0.7> 1
1,015> 1
that is, the condition is true - then bet the bookmaker is doing.
Let's check the validity of our calculations. Assuming that the determination of the probability of victory was made is true, making 100 similar rates under $ 1, we will win 70 times in total as a result we will get 70 * $ 1.45 = $ 101.5 while spending $ 100 - so for long-term game and the right calculation of the probability of winning We'll be in the black.
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